中国对东南亚国家睦邻信号传递的不对称视角分析

China's Good Neighbor Signaling to Southeast Asian Countries in Asymmetric Perspective

在信息不对称的国际关系中,意图识别问题是困扰外交互动的重要难题,尤其在权力转移背景下,周边国家的安全焦虑会因实力不对称和信息不对称而被进一步放大。东南亚地区是中国睦邻外交的重要方向,也是观察中国睦邻承诺的关键窗口。冷战结束后,中国对东南亚国家的睦邻外交可以细分“与邻为善、以邻为伴”的信任塑造阶段(1997—2002年)、实践“睦邻、安邻、富邻”原则的黄金阶段(2003—2012年)与共建“命运共同体”的战略互惠阶段(2013年至今)。为了缓解实力不对称和信息不对称压力,建构东南亚国家对中国的信任,中国睦邻信号传递通过强化情感修辞、展示自我克制诚意和积累互惠合作善意三种策略取得了显著成效。东南亚国家基于不对称认知,对中国采取多种信号识别策略,通过议价试探、制度约束和互惠交换等策略了解中国的战略意图。中国周边外交的睦邻信号传递需要关注小国“需求”,在威慑与安全的平衡过程中提升承诺可信度。只有先关注小国需求,才能更好地分析大国承诺的可信度。作为睦邻承诺的信号发出者,中国需了解对方的关切与需求,有针对性地塑造和平可信的大国形象。同时,中国作为发展中的大国,也需要坚决捍卫重大国家利益底线,由此形成强势与温和的两种形象。展望未来,东南亚国家对中国的形象认知将受大国竞争与小国对冲政策影响,在阶段性波动中变得愈发复杂。

In international relations with asymmetric power and information,intention identification is an important challenge that plagues diplomatic interactions,especially in the context of power transfer,the security anxiety of neighboring countries is amplified.Southeast Asia is an important region for China's good-neighborly diplomacy and a key window to observe China's commitments in this regard.After the Cold War,China's good-neighborly diplomacy in Southeast Asia can be divided into the trust-shaping stage of"building friendship and partnership with neighbors"(1997-2002),the golden stage of"fostering an amicable,secure and prosperous neighborhood"(2003-2012)and the strategic mutual benefit stage of jointly building"a community with a shared future"(2013-present).In order to alleviate the pressure from asymmetric power and information and to build Southeast Asian countries'trust in China,China's good-neighborly signaling has achieved remarkable results through three strategies:strengthening emotional rhetoric,demonstrating the sincerity of self-restraint and the goodwill for mutually beneficial cooperation.Southeast Asian countries adopt a variety of signal recognition strategies towards China based on asymmetric cognition,and understand China's strategic intentions through bargaining tests,institutional constraints and reciprocal exchange,etc.The good-neighborly signaling of China's peripheral diplomacy requires attention to the"needs"of small countries and enhance the credibility of its commitments in the process of balancing deterrence and security.Only if attention is paid to the needs of small countries first can the credibility of the commitments of big countries be better analyzed.As the signaler of good-neighborly commitments,China needs to understand each other's concerns and needs,and shape its image of a peaceful and credible major country in a targeted manner.However,as a major developing country,China needs to resolutely defend the bottom line of major national interests,forming two images of China:strong and moderate.Looking to the future,Southeast Asian countries'perception of China's image will be affected by the competition between big countries and the hedging policies of small countries,and will become increasingly complex amid periodic fluctuations.