中国全要素碳生产率及时空分异研究——基于中国30个省份的数据

Total Factor Carbon Productivity and Its Temporal-Spatial Differentiation Characteristics in China

运用EBM模型和全局Malmqusit-Luenberger指数对2011—2020年中国30个省份的全要素碳生产率(TFCP)进行测算,采用核密度函数和Dagum基尼系数及其分解法考察中国全要素碳生产率的时空分异特征。研究表明:(1)中国全要素碳生产率总体呈上升趋势,其中西部地区全要素碳生产率增长速度最快,整个样本时期内西部地区TFCP增长水平最高,之后依次是东部地区和中部地区,东北地区最低且自2015年起TFCP出现负增长并且趋势不断扩大。(2)通过核密度函数分析发现:全要素碳生产率水平存在区域差异,全国和四大区域内全要素碳生产率水平的绝对差异均呈一定的上升趋势,但随着时间的推移,全要素碳生产率水平高的省份与其他省份之间的差距有所缩小;近年来东中西地区极化现象减少,东北地区部分年份极化现象明显,变化规律性较小。(3)通过Dagum基尼系数及分解分析发现:从时序发展过程来看,西部地区和东北部地区的全要素碳生产率在十年间呈上升趋势,东部和中部地区的地区内则呈现下降趋势;从空间分异来看,西部和东北部地区之间的空间分异程度最大,东—中部地区、东—东北地区、东—西部地区之间的整体走势相近,中—西部地区、中—东北地区、西—东北地区之间的整体走势相近,区域间分异程度都呈现明显的扩大趋势。

Adopting EBM model and the global Malmqusit-Luenberger index,this paper measures the total factor carbon productivity in China(involving 30 provinces)from 2011 to 2020.The temporal-spatial differentiation of total factor carbon productivity was investigated by using the nuclear density function,Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method.The research shows that:(1)China’s total factor carbon productivity is on the rise in general,of which the growth rate of total factor carbon productivity in the western region is the fastest,and the growth level of TFCP in the western region is the highest in the whole sample period,followed by the eastern region and the central region,and the lowest is in the northeast region.Since 2015,TFCP has seen negative growth and the trend continues to expand.(2)Through kernel density function analysis,it is found that there are regional differences in total factor carbon productivity levels,and the absolute differences in total factor carbon productivity levels across the country and the four major regions have a certain upward trend.However,over time,the gap between provinces with high total factor carbon productivity levels and other provinces has narrowed;In recent years,the polarization phenomenon in the eastern,central,and western regions has decreased,and in some years,the polarization phenomenon in the northeast region is obvious,with a small change regularity.(3)Through the Dagum Gini coefficient and decomposition analysis,it is found that the total factor carbon productivity of the western and northeastern regions has shown an upward trend in 10 years,while that of the eastern and central regions has shown a downward trend;From the perspective of spatial differentiation,the degree of spatial differentiation between the west and the northeast is the largest.The overall trend between the east-central region,the east-northeast region,and the east-west region is similar.The overall trend between the central-west region,the central-northeast region,and the west-northeast region is similar.The degree of regional differentiation shows an obvious expansion trend.