区域碳排放达峰预测模型构建与实现路径研究

Construction and Research of Regional Carbon Emission Peak Prediction Model and Its Realization Path

我国于2020年明确提出了碳排放峰值目标,但学术界在区域碳排放达峰预测模型构建和实现路径方面的研究还相对缺乏。为探索和构建更为有效、准确的区域碳排放达峰预测模型并提出可行的实现路径,首先,分析和选取影响二氧化碳排放量的重要因素与指标,建立起STIRPAT拓展模型;其次,依托排放系数法及多尺度排放清单模型(MEIC)来计算历史数据,运用岭回归算法得出STIRPAT拓展模型中各个指标的弹性系数;最后,结合情景分析法,对区域碳排放量进行不同发展情景的预测。其中,预测模型采用天津市统计年鉴(2000—2021年)的数据,预测天津市未来的碳排放量、碳排放峰值和碳达峰时间,进而深入探索区域实现碳达峰的最优路径。研究结果以期为区域碳排放达峰的预测理论拓展和实践,以及绿色减排的可持续发展决策提供辅助,为实现区域碳达峰碳中和目标提供科学依据和路径参考。

China has clearly proposed the peak carbon emission target in 2020.There is a lack of research on carbon emission peak prediction models and methods.In order to explore and construct a more effective and accurate regional carbon emission peak prediction model and propose feasible implementation pathways,thefirst step is to analyze and select important factors and indicators that affect carbon emissions,and establish the STIRPAT extended model.Secondly,rely on the emission coefficient method and the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China(MEIC),it calculates the historical data,and it uses the ridge regression algorithm to obtain the coefficients of each indicator in the STIRPAT extended model.Finally,combining with the scenario analysis method,it predicts the carbon emissions in different development scenarios.Among them,using the Tianjin statistical yearbook(2000-2021)data as the basic data,it predicts the peak of carbon emissions and the timing of carbon peaking,and further explores the optimal path to achieve carbon emissions peak.The research results can provide assistance for the theoretical expansion and practical guidance of carbon peak prediction method,as well as the sustainable development decision of green emission reduction,and provide scientific basis and way for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in all parts of China.