欧盟碳边境调节机制对我国出口贸易的影响研究

The Impact of EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism on China’s Export Trade

欧盟即将实施碳边境调节机制作为其实现气候和能源目标战略的一部分,试图为境内企业提供公平的竞争环境,并减少碳泄漏的风险。欧盟的碳边境调节机制会增加我国向欧盟出口产品的成本,降低我国出口产品在欧盟市场的竞争力。论文利用多区域投入产出模型测算了我国与欧盟之间的贸易隐含碳排放,并基于欧盟当前的碳价水平定量评估了碳边境调节机制对我国向欧盟出口产品成本的影响。研究结果显示,当前出台的碳边境调节机制覆盖范围较窄,且主要考虑直接排放,虽然对覆盖部门的影响较为显著,但对我国与欧盟的总体贸易影响较小。不过,考虑到后续碳边境调节机制可能的政策调整方向,我国对欧盟的出口贸易可能在未来受到更大的挑战。

The European Union(EU)is preparing to implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism as part of its climate and energy target strategy,in an attempt to provide a level playingfield for domestic enterprises and reduce the risk of carbon leakage.The EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism will increase the cost of China’s exports to the EU,and reduce the competitiveness of Chinese export products in the EU market.The paper adopts a multi-regional input-output model to estimate the trade-related carbon emissions between China and the EU,and quantitatively evaluates the impact of the carbon border adjustment mechanism on the cost of Chinese exports to the EU based on the current carbon price level in the EU.The results show that the current carbon border adjustment mechanism has a narrow coverage and mainly considers direct emissions.Although it has a significant impact on the covered sectors,it has a relatively small overall impact on China-EU trade.However,considering the possible direction of future adjustments to the carbon border adjustment mechanism,China’s export trade with the EU may face greater challenges in the future.