中国装备制造业贸易依存度、产业升级与绿色发展的动态关系——基于面板数据的PVAR模型分析

Research on the Dynamic Relationship among Equipment Manufacturing Industry Trade Dependence,Industrial Upgrading and Green Development:Empirical Evidence of PVAR Model Based on Panel Data

论文以2006—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据为样本,构建PVAR模型,引入脉冲响应函数,从静态和动态视角分析三者间的相互影响。研究结果表明:(1)贸易依存度、进口依存度、出口依存度对产业升级有短期促进的作用和长期抑制的作用,对绿色发展有长期的抑制作用。(2)产业升级对贸易依存度、进口依存度、出口依存度以及绿色发展有长期的抑制作用。(3)绿色发展对贸易依存度、进口依存度、出口依存度有短期促进的作用和长期抑制的作用,对产业升级有长期的促进作用。基于研究结论,进而提出优化装备制造业对外贸易模式、鼓励装备制造业向高端化绿色化升级、持续深化绿色发展理念的建议。

This paper analyzes the degree of mutual influence between equipment manufacturing industry trade dependence,industrial upgrading,and green development from both a static and dynamic perspective by constructing a panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model and employing an impulse response function based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020.The empirical results are:(1)Trade dependence,import dependence,and export dependence have short-term stimulating effects,long-term inhibiting effects on industrial upgrading,and long-term inhibiting effects on green development.(2)Industrial upgrading has a long-term inhibitory effect on trade dependence,import dependence,export dependence,and green development.(3)Green development has a short-term stimulating effect,a long-term inhibiting effect on trade dependence,import dependence and export dependence,and a long-term stimulating effect on industrial upgrading.In view of this,we propose suggestions to optimize the foreign trade model of the equipment manufacturing industry,encourage its upgrading towards high-end and green development,and continue to deepen the concept of green development.