国家生态文明试验区建设对农业碳排放强度的影响——基于30个省份面板数据的准自然实验

Impact of National Ecological Civilization Pilot Zone Construction on Agricultural Carbon Emission Intensity:A Quasi Natural Experiment Based on Panel Data of 30 Provinces

从生态文明理论构建到生态文明试验区的建设,中国生态文明逐步从理论构建迈向实践探索。农业产量增长与降低碳排放强度是生态文明建设的新挑战。论文利用合成控制法和合成双重差分法,基于2001—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,分析2016年以来国家级生态文明试验区的设立和建设对试验区农业碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:(1)在国家生态文明试验区建设开始之后,试验区的农业碳排放强度降低成效总体优于中国其他地区,对于实现“双碳”目标有重要的促进作用;(2)合成控制法研究结果表明,国家生态文明试验区对于农业碳排放强度降低的政策效应具有政策的时滞性和区域差异性,在不同地区呈现出不同的政策效应;(3)合成双重差分研究结果表明,生态文明试验区的设立对贵州农业碳排放强度降低呈现出“强有效”的政策效应,福建呈现出“部分有效”,而江西则呈现出“弱有效”。基于分析结论,最后从生态文明试验区政策的推广和实施等方面提出对策建议,以期推动中国生态文明建设进一步发展,助力“双碳”目标的实现。

From the construction of ecological civilization theory to the construction of ecological civilization pilot zones,China’s ecological civilization has gradually moved from theoretical construction to practical exploration.The growth of agricultural production and the reduction of carbon emission intensity are new challenges for the construction of ecological civilization.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2001 to 2020,this paper uses the composite control method to analyze the impact of the establishment and construction of national ecological civilization pilot areas on agricultural carbon emission intensity in the pilot areas since 2016.Research has found that:(1)After the construction of the national ecological civilization pilot zone began,the overall reduction effect of agricultural carbon emission intensity in the pilot zone was better than other regions in China,which has an important promoting role in achieving the“dual carbon”goal;(2)The policy effect of the national ecological civilization pilot zone on reducing agricultural carbon emission intensity has policy lag and regional differences,showing a“strong effective”policy effect on Guizhou,a“partially effective”policy effect on Fujian,and a“weak effective”policy effect on Jiangxi.Finally,we proposed countermeasures and suggestions from the promotion and implementation of policies in the ecological civilization pilot zone.