高等职业教育经费支出对省域产业结构升级的影响——基于空间溢出和门槛特征视角

The Impact of Higher Vocational Education Expenditure on the Upgrading of Provincial Industrial Structure——Based on the Perspective of Spatial Overflow and Threshold Features

基于2008-2021年31个省域面板数据,借助莫兰指数、空间面板回归模型和门槛回归模型,考察高等职业教育经费支出与产业结构升级的空间相关性,测算高等职业教育经费支出对产业结构升级的空间溢出效应和门槛特征。研究发现:高职教育经费支出与产业结构升级均存在正向的空间自相关性;高职教育经费支出对产业结构升级有正向影响但影响效果较小;本省高职教育经费支出对邻省产业结构升级存在正向的空间溢出效应。此外,高职教育经费支出存在单门槛值,产业结构升级随着高职教育经费支出的增加而提高但呈边际递减,经济发展水平存在双门槛值,经济发展水平越高,高职教育经费支出对产业结构升级的正向影响越明显。

Based on the panel data set of 31 provinces from 2008 to 2021,the spatial correlation between higher vocational education expenditure and industrial structure upgrading was investigated by means of the Moran index,spatial panel regression model and threshold regression model,and the spatial spillover effect and threshold characteristics of higher vocational education expenditure were estimated.The results show that there is a positive spatial auto-correlation between higher vocational education expenditure and industrial structure upgrading.The expenditure of higher vocational education has a positive effect on the upgrading of industrial structure,but the effect is small.There is a significant spatial spillover effect of higher vocational education expenditure on industrial structure upgrading in neighboring provinces.In addition,there is a single threshold value of higher vocational education expenditure,and the upgrading of industrial structure increases with the increase of higher vocational education expenditure but shows a marginal decline.There is a double threshold value of economic development level.The higher the level of economic development,the more obvious the positive impact of higher vocational education expenditure on the upgrading of industrial structure.