多因素影响下无人机编队任务可靠性模型构建研究

Construction of UAV Formation Mission Reliability Model Under the Influence of Multiple Factors

针对多因素影响下无人机(unmanned aerial vehicle,UAV)编队任务可靠性问题,提出了无人机编队任务可靠性双层模型。首先,基于故障树分析方法,构建了无人机编队任务可靠性下层模型,描述无人机编队的故障状态;其次,基于Markov模型构建无人机编队任务可靠性上层模型,描述无人机编队任务过程中,阶段及状态的转换;最后,建立任务可靠度求解的双层模型对无人机编队任务可靠度进行仿真模拟。设定应用场景仿真验证,仿真结果表明:在起飞/爬升阶段和巡航阶段,本文方法与传统故障树法所计算的任务可靠度结果一致;在侦察阶段,本文方法比传统故障树法的任务可靠度计算结果高0.012 5,给定显著性水平,本文算法的可靠度结果均落在置信区间内,验证了计算结果的可信性。

In this paper,a two-layer model of UAV formation mission reliability is proposed.Firstly,based on the fault tree analysis method,the lower layer model of UAV formation mission reliability is constructed to describe the fault state of UAV formation.Secondly,the upper layer model of UAV formation mission reliability is constructed based on the Markov model,which describes the stages and state transitions during the UAV formation mission process.Finally,a two-layer model for solving task reliability is established to analyze the reliability of UAV formation missions,and the simulation verification of application scenarios is set.The simulation results show that the mission reliability results calculated by the paper's method and the traditional fault tree method are in good agreement in the take-off/climbing and cruise phase.In the reconnaissance phase,the reliability settlement result is 0.012 5 higher than the traditional fault tree method,and for the given confidence level,the reliability result falls within the confidence interval,which verifies the credibility of the settlement result.