俄乌冲突与全球和中国粮食安全:冲击与修复

The Impact of Russia-Ukraine Conflict on World and China's Food Security:A Study of the Impact and Self-repair Mechanism

俄罗斯和乌克兰在全球农产品市场的地位举足轻重。俄乌冲突短期对全球粮食市场造成较大扰动,全球粮食安全受到影响,但2022年7月、8月全球粮食价格已回到俄乌冲突以前的水平,全球农产品市场完成了自我修复。本文对俄乌冲突与全球粮食安全进行复盘,发现全球农产品市场冲击与修复机制不同,从冲击机制来看,俄乌冲突直接冲击乌克兰旧作物季的出口和新作物季的生产,并通过影响出口国出口政策、冲击能源等基础物资供给等方式间接影响市场;从修复机制来看,全球农产品贸易在市场准入、贸易便利化等多边贸易体制下保持了应有的韧性,价格上涨产生贸易转移、刺激生产效应,并抑制部分需求,从而达到供求新均衡,这是全球农产品供应链富有韧性的内在作用机制。俄乌冲突对中国粮油市场也产生影响,但影响在不同品种间有所分化,对玉米、油脂油料等国内外联动性较高的品种影响较大,对小麦、稻谷等联动性较低的品种供应影响较小。本文认为应对危机,短期靠储备、中期靠进口、长期靠生产,建立必要的储备、进口和生产调节能力,未雨绸缪应对短期的供给冲击,坚定国际农产品贸易信心,持续深化农业贸易和投资国际合作,推动构建多元流通格局,充分利用两个市场、两种资源保障国家粮食安全。

Russia and Ukraine both carry a big weight in global agricultural commodity market.The outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict in Feb 2022 has caused great disturbance to the market in short term and generated negative impact on world food security.However,the global food price has returned to the level before the Russia-Ukraine conflict since July and August in 2022,which means global agricultural commodity market has completed self-repair.This paper reviews the Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on agricultural commodity market and finds that the impact mechanism is different from self-repair mechanism.For the impact mechanism,the Russia-Ukraine conflict directly stroked the export of Ukraine's old-season products and new-season production,What's more,it indirectly affected the market by triggering export restrictions of some exporting countries and through the transmission of fluctuations from energy market.For the self-repair mechanism,global agricultural commodity market has maintained its inherent resilience under multilateral trading systems such as market access and trade facilitation.Price rise has generated “trade transfer effect”-stimulating production from other countries and suppressed demand.As a result,a new market equilibrium has been achieved.The Russia-Ukraine conflict also has an impact on China's grain and oil market,but the impact is different among varieties.It has a greater impact on varieties with high linkage at home and abroad,such as corn,oil and oilseeds,while it has a smaller impact on varieties with low linkage,such as wheat and rice.To cope with such crisis,we need to rely on reserves in the short term,expand imports in the medium term,and increase domestic production in the long term.It is recommended to establish necessary and systematic capabilities in response to short-term supply shocks.We should strengthen confidence in international agricultural trade,deepen international cooperation in agricultural trade and investment,promote the construction of a diversified supply channels,and fully utilize domestic and international markets and resources to ensure national food security.