论通用人工智能的新突破对世界政治经济的多重影响

New Breakthrough of General Al and Its Impact on Global Political and Economic Landscape

在第三波人工智能浪潮的过程中,到目前为止有三次代表性事件。第一次是“AlphaGo战胜李世石”事件,第二次是以ChatGPT为代表的大语言模型的突破,第三次则是以Sora为代表的多模态大模型的突破。通用大模型让人类看到了通用人工智能的希望,可以被看作是未完成意义上的奇点创新。通用大模型的奇点创新将对搜索、电商和娱乐这三个互联网的传统业务形成颠覆性的影响。在通用大模型的基础之上,将会出现以奇点创新为特征的新质生产力。这是一种以人工智能为中心的生产力,主要表现为去劳动力化。美国会继续采用“小院高墙”战略将其新质生产力控制起来,防止对外进行扩散,同时美国还会利用其价值观科技联盟体系巩固其新质生产力优势。处于通用大模型技术顶端的美国将会运用这一技术优势实现其政治目标,并可能通过操控政治舆论以图颠覆他国政权,这势必会增加世界政治经济中的竞争和冲突。在人工智能技术的发展过程中,中美在一段时间内形成了某种不对称平衡,通用大模型技术的出现将会打破这种不对称平衡。

During the process of the third wave of artificial intelligence,there have been three representative events thus far.The first event related to the"AlphaGo defeating Lee Sedol",the second was a breakthrough in the large language models represented by ChatGPT,and the third was a breakthrough in the multimodal large models represented by Sora.General large models have provided humanity with a glimpse of the potential for general artificial intelligence,and thus can be seen as a singularity innovation in an unfinished sense.The singularity innovation of general large models is reflected in their potential to disrupt the traditional businesses of search,e-commerce,and entertainment within the internet industry.Building upon general large models,new qualitative productive forces may emerge.This kind of new qualitative productive forces,centered around artificial intelligence,is a dehumanization of labor.The United States will adopt a"small yard,high fence"strategy to control its advanced productive forces,preventing its diffusion.Additionally,the United States will utilize a value-technology alliance system to consolidate its advantage in new qualitative productive forces.Being at the forefront of general large models technology,the United States has the capability to employ this technological advantage to achieve its political goals,manipulating political discourse to subvert the governments of other countries.This is bound to further intensify conflicts within world politics and economy.In the process of technological development in artificial intelligence,China and the United States have achieved a certain asymmetric balance for a period of time,however,which could be disrupted with the emergence of general large models.