顺其自然还是引导退出--基于空壳社对正常合作社发展的影响研究

Let It Be or Impose Intervention:Based on the Effect of Shell Cooperatives on the Development of Farmer Cooperatives

本文分析了空壳社对正常合作社影响的理论机制,并采用2014—2020年中国农民合作社近似全量数据库,探索空壳社的识别策略,描述其发展的现状和规律,从微观个体和宏观地区层面分析空壳社的存在对农民合作社高质量发展的影响,并讨论该影响的作用机制。实证结果表明,在微观个体层面,空壳社的存在对正常合作社经济绩效产生显著负向影响,空壳社对正常合作社的负面影响在市场机制完善程度相对较低的中西部地区、劳动力密集型的种植业和空壳率较高地区更为明显;在地区层面,空壳社未对当地示范社数量发展和农户带动作用产生显著的负面作用。

In recent years,the existence of shell cooperatives has drawn attention of both practitioners and scholars.Using a comprehensive data set of farmer cooperatives from 2014 to 2020,this paper explores strategies to identify shell cooperatives,maps the development of shell cooperatives,and examines the impacts of shell cooperatives on the performance and development of farmer cooperatives at both individual and regional levels.The results show that the existence of shell cooperatives has a negative effect on the performance of normal cooperatives.These effects are heterogeneous across geographical areas,industries,anddensitiesof shell cooperatives.Specifically,the negative impacts of shell cooperatives on normal cooperatives are more pronounced in central and western China where market mechanisms are relatively less welldeveloped,in labor-intensive crop farming,and in areas with higher rates of shell cooperatives.Empirical analysis at regional level shows that the existence of shell cooperatives does not negatively influence the inclusion of farmers in cooperatives.