农业劳动力老龄化与农地转出决策变动--基于家庭承包耕地决策权代际转移的视角

Aging Agricultural Workforce and Changes in Decision-making of Farmland Transfer:From the Perspective of Intergenerational Transfer of Decision-making Power of Household Contracted Farmland

基于家庭承包耕地决策权代际转移视角,本文利用2011—2018年4期中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)数据考察了农业劳动力老龄化对家庭农地转出决策的影响及其机制。研究发现,农业劳动力老龄化使家庭转出农地的概率和面积均先增加后减少,对家庭农地转出决策的影响呈现“倒U型”。机制分析表明,家庭成员务农行为显著抑制了农地转出决策,农业劳动力老龄化既是农户自身务农行为的强烈约束,又显著促进了子代务农。老龄化对农户自身及其子代务农行为的影响共同确定了家庭承包耕地决策权转移的年龄临界点。当农户年龄小于临界点,老龄化对农户自身务农行为的挤出效应占主导地位,当农户年龄大于临界点,家庭承包耕地的决策权发生转移,老龄化对子代务农行为的促进效应发挥主要作用。进一步分析表明,老龄化一方面削弱了农户自身的健康状态,迫使其退出农业生产;另一方面,年龄增加引致的照料需求促使子代返回农村,增加了子代务农的概率。本研究对加强农村老龄人口医疗照护、释放农村人口红利及农地流转市场有序健康发展具有重要启示。

Changes in household farmland transfer decisions are essentially a reallocation of labor and land resources.Based on the perspective of intergenerational transfer of decision-making power over household contracted farmland,this paper examines the impact of aging agricultural labor on household farmland transfer-out decisions and its mechanisms using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)covering four periods from 2011 to 2018.We find that aging agricultural labor increases and then decreases the probability and area of household transfer-out farmland,and the impact on household transfer-out decisions is presented with the shape of inverted U.The mechanism analysis shows that the agricultural behavior of family members significantly inhibits the decision to transfer farmland out,and the aging of agricultural labor is not only a strong constraint on farmers'own agricultural behavior,but also significantly promotes the subgeneration.The impact of aging on the farming behavior of farmers and their offspring jointly determines the age threshold for the transfer of decision-making power over contract farmland.When farmers'age is less than the threshold,the crowding-out effect of aging on their own farming behavior dominates,otherwise,the transfer of decision-making power over contract farming takes place,and the promotion effect of aging on the farming behavior of the offspring plays a major role.Further analysis shows that aging,on the one hand,weakens farmers'own health and forces them out of agricultural production;on the other hand,the care needs arising from increasing age drive offspring back to the countryside,increasing the probability of offspring farming.This paper has important implications for the enhancement of medical care for the aging population in rural areas,the release of the rural demographic dividend and the orderly and healthy development of the farmland transfer market.