农户赡养负担、消费结构升级与内部消费结构差距--来自中国家庭追踪调查的证据

Dependency Burden of Farm Household,Consumption Structure Upgrade and Internal Consumption Structure Gap:Evidence from the Chinese Household Tracking Survey

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2016年和2018年两期数据,实证分析了赡养负担对农户消费结构升级及农户内部消费结构差距的影响。研究表明,整体而言,赡养负担显著地抑制了农户消费结构升级,并扩大了农户内部的消费结构差距;分开来看,赡养老人所担负的时间成本和经济成本均对农户内部消费结构差距的扩大有显著影响。本文进一步运用中介效应模型对家庭收入中介效应进行检验的结果表明,时间成本主要通过抑制家庭收入从而扩大农户内部的消费结构差距。异质性分析显示,赡养负担对大规模家庭之间的消费结构差距扩大具有显著影响,对小规模家庭的影响并不显著;人力资本禀赋方面,赡养负担显著扩大了高年龄组和低教育组农户内部的消费结构差距,对高教育组则无显著影响;与东部地区相比,中西部地区农户内部的消费结构差距会因赡养负担的加重而显著扩大。本文结论对缩小农户内部消费结构差距、扩大农村内需以及增强国内大循环的内生动力具有重要的参考意义。

Based on data from CFPS2016 and CFPS2018,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of dependency burden on the structural upgrading of farm households'consumption and the structural gap in intra-farm consumption.The results show that,overall,dependency burden significantly inhibits the upgrading of farm households'consumption structure and widens the consumption structure gap within farm households;separately,both the time cost and economic cost in supporting the elderly have significant effects on the widening of the consumption structure gap within farm households.This paper further applies the mediating effect model to test the mediating effect of household income,and the test results show that the time cost mainly suppresses household income and thus widens the consumption gap within farm households.The heterogeneity analysis shows that dependency burden has a significant effect on the widening of the consumption structure gap between large scale households,but not on small scale households;in terms of human capital endowment,the burden of support significantly widens the consumption structure gap within the high age group and low education group,but has no significant effect on the high education group;compared with the eastern region,the consumption structure gap within the central and western regions farm households is significantly widened by dependency burden.The gap in consumption structure within farming households in the central and western regions is significantly widened by the increase in dependency burden compared with the eastern region.The findings of this paper have important implications for narrowing the consumption structure gap within farm households,expanding rural domestic demand,and enhancing the endogenous dynamics of the general domestic cycle.