中国跨境银团贷款网络特征对信用风险的影响

The Impact of the Characteristics of China's Cross-Border Syndicated Loan Networks on Credit Risk

伴随着我国金融市场的进一步开放,跨境银团贷款业务迅速发展,推动了跨境资本的双向流动,由此带来的风险聚集效应也明显增强。基于2000-2021年我国跨境银团贷款参与者的相关数据,研究跨境银团贷款网络特征对信用风险的影响,并通过构建跨境银团贷款复杂网络分析该网络特征和动态变化及不同风险程度企业的差异,通过构建广义回归模型刻画网络节点特征对信用风险的影响关系。研究结果发现:跨境银团贷款网络特征的动态演化呈现出复杂性,跨境银团贷款业务主要集中在信用风险较大的企业;不同信用风险程度企业跨境银团贷款的网络特征差异显著;网络度数中心度、中介中心度、接近中心度的特征均与信用风险显著负相关,而聚类系数与信用风险显著正相关。因此,国内商业银行在拓展海外贷款业务时,应加强与国际金融机构的合作交流,共享国际信贷市场的优质客户资源;应借鉴国际先进经验,重视银团贷款数据仓库建设,努力解决银行与企业、牵头行与参贷行间的信息不对称难题。

With the further opening up of China's financial market,the cross-border syndicated loan business has developed rapidly,promoting the two-way flow of cross-border capital,and significantly enhancing the risk aggregation effect.Based on the relevant data of cross-border syndicated loan participants in China from 2000 to 2021,this paper studies the impact of cross-border syndicated loan network characteristics on credit risk.By constructing a complex network of cross-border syndicated loans,the network characteristics and dynamic changes,as well as the dfferences among enterprises with varying risk levels,are analyzed.The impact of network node characteristics on credit risk is further depicted by constructing a generalized regression model.The results show that the evolving characteristics of cross-border syndicated loan networks are complex,and the cross-border syndicated loan business is mainly concentrated in enterprises with large credit risk.There are significant differences in the network characteristics of cross-border syndicated loans among enterprises with varying credit risk levels.The characteristics of network degree centrality,intermediary centrality,and proximity centrality are significantly negatively correlated with credit risk,while the clustering coefficient is significantly positively correlated with credit risk.Therefore,when expanding overseas loan business,domestic commercial banks should strengthen cooperation and exchanges with international financial institutions and share high-quality customer resources in the international credit market.At the same time,they should learn from international best practices,pay attention to the construction of syndicated loan data warehouses,and tackle the issue of information asymmetry between banks and enterprises,as well as between the lead bank and participating banks.