人口老龄化背景下养老金财政负担预测及化解路径

Predicting and Resolving the Fiscal Burden of Pensions Under the Context of Population Aging

在老龄化日益严重的社会背景下,我国的社会保障制度,尤其是养老金制度,面临着巨大的挑战。基于此,本文通过构建精算模型,预测未来养老金支出水平和财政负担。研究结果显示,到2050年,养老金财政补贴额占一般性财政支出比重将达到40.5%,并且,仅对当期结余进行调剂的全国统筹余缺调剂制度在长期内并不能有效减轻财政压力。最后,结合相关政策和参数改革,探讨了将当前的当期结余上解的全国统筹调剂制度改为累计结余上解的全国统筹调剂制度后,养老金财政压力的减轻,并提出缓解养老金的财政负担、增强养老金制度的稳定性和可持续性的政策建议。

In a society where population aging is becoming more severe.China's social security system,especially the pension scheme,is facing tremendous challenges.In this context,this paper constructs an actuarial model to forecast future pension expenditure levels and the fiscal burden.The research findings suggest that by 2050,the proportion of fiscal subsidies for pensions will reach 40.5%of general fiscal expenditures.Moreover,the current nationwide pooling and adjustment system,which only deals with current surpluses, will not effectively alleviate fiscal pressure in the long term. Finally, based on the relevantpolicy adjustments and parameter reforms, the paper explores the potential reduction of financial pressure onpension funds by transitioning from the current national coordination adjustment system based on the transferof current-period surpluses to a system based on the transfer of accumulated surpluses. And it puts forwardsolutions to mitigate the fiscal burden of pensions, thus strengthening the stability and sustainability of thepension system.