城乡建设领域碳排放现状及影响因素分析

Analysis of Current Situation and Influence Factors on Carbon Emission of Urban and Rural Architecture

本文建立了城乡建设领域碳排放计算模型,对基于时间序列的城乡建设领域碳排放变化特征进行了研究,评估了30个省(区、市)城乡建设领域碳达峰状态,采用Kaya-LMDI模型分析了城乡建设领域碳排放的主要驱动因素。研究表明,2020年城乡建设领域碳排放总量已达23.0亿t,近年来由于建筑节能等专项的实施,其增速出现大幅放缓,已从2010年的9.6%下降至2020年1.2%,其中10个省(市、区)城乡建设领域碳排放已进入达峰期、平台期或下降期。当前,经济因子和技术因子分别是城乡建设领域碳排放的主要增长和减排的驱动因素;受区域实际和综合政策等影响,人口因子、能源因子对部分地区碳排放也起到关键作用。本研究旨在为城乡建设领域碳达峰实施路径的科学制定提供参考。

A calculation model on the carbon emission of urban and rural architecture was built to study the variation characteristics of the carbon emission based on time series,and analyze the carbon peaking status for 30 provinces.Kaya-LMDI model was then used to identify the main driving factors.The results show that carbon emission of urban and rural architecture has reached 2.30 billion tons in 2020.With the implementation of special projects such as building energy efficiency,its growth rate has slowed down significantly,from 9.6% in 2010 to 1.2% in 2020.Among them,the carbon emissions of urban and rural architecture of 10 provinces have entered the peak period,plateau period,or decline period.At present,the economic and technical factors are the main driving factors of carbon emission growth and reduction.Under the influence of regional reality and comprehensive policies,the population factor and energy factor also play a key role in carbon emission in some regions.This study aims to provide references for the scientific formulation of the implementation path on carbon peak of urban and rural architecture.