湖南省公路固废物质流分析与产排预测

Analysis of Solid Waste Material Flow and Prediction of Production and Discharge on Highway in Hunan Province

为助力公路系统建养生态化、绿色化转型发展,基于公路里程存量与大中修数据,结合MATLAB、Origin等数据分析和处理平台,采用物质流分析方法进行了湖南省公路固废的物质流分析,构建了公路固废产排预测模型。物质流分析结果显示,近年湖南省地方公路固废主要为废旧水泥混凝土,占比75%左右,其余为沥青路面回收料(RAP)。高速公路则以RAP为主,占比76%左右,其余为废旧水泥混凝土。在产排预测方面,本文设置短寿命(6 a)、中寿命(10 a)、中长寿命(20 a)和长寿命(30 a)4种寿命情景进行分析,预测了湖南省公路固废产生量的变化规律。结果表明,湖南省地方公路存量和高速公路存量分别在2031年和2050年达到饱和,为451 137 km和11 180 km。短寿命情景下的地方公路和高速公路大中修里程分别于2028年和2022年左右达到峰值,为3 210 km和534 km,长寿命情景下大中修里程的峰值出现更晚、波动更大。在短寿命、中寿命、中长寿命和长寿命4种情景下,地方公路公路固废产生量在2028年、2029年、2037年和2046年达到第一个小峰值,分别为652万t、447万t、291万t和280万t,此后围绕峰值波动;高速公路公路固废产生量在2022年、2024年、2032年和2043年达到第一个小峰值,分别为238万t、183万t、140万t、110万t,此后围绕峰值波动。结合调研结果,短寿命情境下更加符合湖南省公路固废产生量的实际情况,这意味着我国公路已经进入了大中修的高峰期。

In order tobuild and developthe highway system ecological and green.The material flow analysis of highway solid waste in Hunan Province was carried outonthebasis of the material flow analysis and highway mileage stock and major and middle repair data,combined with MATLAB,origin and other data analysis and processing platforms.A forecasting model of highway solid waste production and discharge was established.The results of material flow analysis show that the main solid waste of local roads in Hunan Province in recent years is waste cement concrete,accounting for about 75%,and the rest is recycledasphalt pavement(RAP).Themainsolidwasteforhighway ismainly RAP,accounting for 76%,andthe rest is waste cement concrete.In terms of production scheduling forecast,this paper sets up four life scenarios for analysis,i.e.,short life(6 years),medium life(10 years),medium long life(20 years)and long life(30 years),and the variation law of highway solid waste output in the future was predicted.The results show that the stock of local roads and expressways will reach saturation in 2031 and 2050,respectively,reaching 451137 km and 11180 km.Under the short life scenario,the mileage of local roads and expressways will peak around 2028 and 2022,reaching 3210 km and 534 km,respectively.Under the long life scenario,the mileage of local roads and expressways will peak later and fluctuate morewidely.Under the four scenarios of short life,medium life,medium long life and long life,the local road solid waste production will reach the first small peak in 2028,2029,2037 and 2046,which were 6.52 million tonnes,4.47 million tonnes,2.91 million tonnes and 2.8 million tonnes,respectively.Then the volume of local road solid waste shows a fluctuating trend.In 2022,2024,2032 and 2043,the quantityof expressway solid waste will reach the first small peak,which is 2.38 million tonnes,1.83 million tonnes,1.4 million tonnes and 1.1 million tonnes respectively.After that,the volume of expressway solid waste showsaa fluctuating trend.combined with the research results,the short life scenario is more consistent with the actual situation of road solid waste production in Hunan Province,which means that China s roads have entered the peak period of major and medium repair.