中国省(市)碳排放特征及减污降碳协同效应初步分析

Preliminary Analysis of China s Provincial Carbon Emissions and the Synergy with Pollution Reduction

在中国“双碳”战略背景下,基于2018—2021年中国30个省域的数据,采用政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提供的方法,运用能源消耗数据和排放因子核算碳排放量,分析了中国二氧化碳(CO_(2))排放量的时空演变特征,并运用减排协同效应量化评价法评估了各省市减污降碳的协同效应。结果显示:中国的碳排放总量在逐年增加,但增速自2021年开始减缓;形成了以华北、华南地区为中心的碳排放高值区,大致呈“南低北高”格局,多数省(市)的碳排放量及增速仍表现为增加态势;约70%省(市)的碳排放与大气污染、空气质量尚未形成协同改善效应,地方政府应加强对碳排放的控制。建议中国各省(市)提高清洁能源利用率,因地制宜发展低碳技术以减少碳排放,实现减污降碳协同。

Under the background of China s peak carbon emissions and carbon neutrality goals,based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 2018 to 2021,this paper used the method given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)to calculate carbon emissions using energy consumption data and emission factors,analyzed the spatiotemporal evolutionary characteristics of China s carbon dioxide(CO_(2))emissions,and used the emission reduction synergy effect quantitative evaluation method to evaluate the synergistic effects of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in various provinces and cities.The results show that:China s total carbon emissions are increasing year by year,but the growth rate has begun to slow down since 2021;A high-value carbon emission area centered on North China and South China has been formed,roughly showing a“low in the south and high in the north”pattern,the carbon emissions and growth rates in most provinces and cities are still increasing;About 70%of the provinces and cities have not yet formed a synergistic effect between carbon emissions and air pollution/air quality,and local governments should strengthen the control of carbon emissions.Therefore,it is recommended that all provinces and cities in China improve the utilization rate of clean energy,develop low-carbon technologies according to local conditions,so as to reduce carbon emissions and achieve synergy in pollution reduction and carbon reduction.