“人口-产业”匹配视角下大城市空间结构演化特征与优化策略——以上海市为例

Evolution Characteristics and Optimization Strategies of Urban Spatial Structure in Megacities from the Perspective of Population-Industry Matching:A Case Study of Shanghai

多中心是大城市空间结构优化的重要思路,一般通过积极的人口布局优化政策、产业布局优化政策来实现。基于上海案例,使用人口普查和经济普查数据,探索2010-2020年间在人口、产业布局优化政策导向下上海市常住人口和就业岗位的空间分布变化,从数量匹配、类型匹配两个维度量化认识人口-产业匹配特征,并通过向心通勤变化揭示了人口-产业匹配特征对市域空间结构优化的影响。研究发现,上海的人口布局优化政策、产业布局优化政策均取得一定成效,但在全市层面出现一定程度的人口-产业数量失配和类型失配现象。这导致了要素流动视角下市域空间结构更趋于单中心极化,与“多中心”发展目标相悖。最后提出大城市制定人口布局优化和产业布局优化政策时必须考虑两者协同,人口-产业匹配有助于实现多中心空间结构。

Polycentricity is an essential goal in optimizing the spatial structure of megacities,which is generally accomplished by active population and industrial layout optimization policies.Taking Shanghai as an example,this study explores changes in the spatial distribution of permanent population and employment in Shanghai between 2010 and 2020,under the guidance of population and industrial layout optimization policies.Population and economic census data are used to quantitatively identify the population-industry matching characteristics in two dimensions:quantity matching and type matching.Furthermore,the impact of population-industry matching attributes on optimizing the spatial structure is shown from the perspective of centripetal commuting changes.The analysis concludes that while Shanghai's population and industrial layout optimization policies have reached the target to some extent,the population-industry quantity mismatch and type mismatch can't be neglected.This has led to a more monocentric polarization of the urban spatial structure under the perspective of factor flow,contrary to the goal of polycentric development.The study suggests that the synergy between population and industrial layout must be considered when designing spatial optimization policies in megacities.Population-industry matching can help realize the polycentric spatial structure.