面向气候风险的长三角中心区城市韧性评估及时空演变

Assessment of Urban Resilience and Spatial and Temporal Evolution in the Yangtze River Delta Region for Climate Risks

全球气候变化带来更强的气候风险,对城市韧性评价能够找出城市发展中应对风险的薄弱环节并提出改进的意见。从气候风险视角出发分析城市在面对多种灾害风险下的韧性变化,从承灾体脆弱性、孕灾环境敏感性、致灾因子危险性和防灾减灾能力4个维度构建气候风险下的韧性评估体系,提供理论基础。通过构建基于投影寻踪的遗传算法模型和耦合激励评价模型进行非线性评估,对长三角中心区2010-2021年间的相关指标和综合韧性进行评价,分析影响城市韧性变化的主要影响因素,识别其分布的时空演变特征。最后根据结果提出长三角中心区城市韧性提升的建议,为相关研究提供借鉴。

Global climate change brings stronger climate risks,and the assessment of urban resilience can identify weak links in urban development and propose improvements.This paper analyzes the resilience changes of cities in the face of multiple disaster risks from the perspective of climate risk,constructs a resilience assessment system under climate risk from the four dimensions of vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies,sensitivity of hazard-inducing environment,risk of disaster factors and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity,provides a theoretical basis,and evaluates the indicators and comprehensive resilience of the central area of the Yangtze River Delta from 2010 to 2021 by constructing a genetic algorithm model and a coupled incentive evaluation model based on projection tracing for nonlinear evaluation.The main influencing factors affecting the change in urban resilience are analyzed,and the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of their distribution are identified.Finally,according to the results,suggestions on resilience improvement are put forward,which provides references for the research and construction of resilience in the central area of the Yangtze River Delta.