气候变化背景下青海省春小麦水分盈亏率时空分布特征

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Spring Wheat Moisture Gain and Loss Rate in Qinghai Province Under Climate Change

本研究旨在科学评价青海省春小麦种植区农业气候变化情况,并合理利用降水资源。采用线性倾向估计、突变检验、空间插值等方法,分析了1991—2021年青海省春小麦生育期气候要素变化趋势及水分盈亏率时空变化特征,并用通径法分析各气象要素与春小麦水分盈亏率的关系。结果表明:青海省春小麦生长期间,气温、≥0℃积温、降水量分别以0.3℃/10 a、50.7℃/10 a、23.6 mm/10 a的速率极显著上升,日照时数以66.6 h/10 a的速率极显著下降,各生育阶段变化趋势显著性不同;全生育期、茎叶生长期、孕穗开花期、灌浆成熟期水分盈亏率每年分别以0.864、1.020、0.464、1.771的百分率增加,孕穗开花阶段增加不显著,全生育期水分盈亏率于2011年发生突变;从地区分布结果来看,水分盈亏率由东向西逐渐减小,河湟谷地水分亏缺较少,青海湖盆地次之,柴达木盆地水分亏缺严重;降水量对水分盈亏率产生显著的正效应,日照、风速、最低气温对水分盈亏率产生显著负效应。研究表明,青海省春小麦种植区气候呈现暖湿化趋势,并且春小麦水分亏缺问题严重,但亏缺程度有所减缓。该研究有助于掌握青海春小麦种植区的气候变化规律,并提高应对干旱灾害风险的能力。

In order to scientifically evaluate the agricultural climate change in spring wheat planting areas of Qinghai Province and rationally utilize the precipitation resources,the article analyzed the variation trend of climatic elements,the temporal and spatial characteristics of the moisture gain and deficit rate during the reproductive period of spring wheat in Qinghai Province from 1991 to 2021 by using linear tendency estimation,mutation test,and spatial interpolation,and the relationship between each meteorological factor and moisture gain and deficit rate was analyzed by path method.The results showed that during the growth period of spring wheat in Qinghai Province,the air temperature,≥0℃cumulative temperature and precipitation increased at a rate of 0.3℃/10 a,50.7℃/10 a,and 23.6 mm/10 a,respectively,and the hours of sunshine decreased at the rate of 66.6 h/10 a,and the trend of changes in the various stages of reproduction was significant different;the full-birth period,the stem and leaf growth period,the gestation and anthesis period,and the grouting and maturity stage moisture gain and deficit rate increased by 0.864,1.020,0.464 and 1.771 percent per year,and the increase was not significant at the stage of pregnancy and flowering,and the moisture gain and deficit rate of the whole reproductive stage changed abruptly in 2011;from the results of regional distribution,the moisture gain and deficit rate gradually decreased from east to west,and the moisture deficit in Hehuang Valley was less,followed by the Qinghai Lake Basin,and the moisture deficit in the Chaidamu Basin was serious;Precipitation had a significant positive effect on the moisture gain and deficit rate,while sunshine,wind speed and minimum air temperature had a significant negative effect on the moisture gain and deficit rate.The climate of spring wheat planting area in Qinghai Province was warm and humid,and the moisture deficit of spring wheat was serious and showed a trend of slowing down.The results of the study are used to grasp the changing law of climate in spring wheat planting area of Qinghai,and to improve the ability to cope with the risk of spring wheat drought disaster.