基于三维生态足迹的渭河流域甘肃段可持续发展综合评价与影响因素分析

Comprehensive Evaluation and Influencing Factors of Sustainable Development in Gansu Section of Weihe River Basin Based on Three-dimensional Ecological Footprint

渭河流域生态系统的稳定和可持续发展是实现黄河流域保护和高质量发展战略的关键。本研究以渭河流域甘肃段为研究对象,采用生态足迹理论和改进的三维生态足迹模型,评估了2005—2020年期间该区域的生态安全状况及其变化趋势。基于此,对渭河流域的生态可持续性以及资源供需平衡进行了综合评价。结果表明,该时段内,渭河流域甘肃段的生态足迹、生态承载力和生态赤字均呈增长趋势,其中生态足迹的增速超过了生态承载力的增速,导致生态赤字持续增加,反映出该地区资源供给不足以满足需求。生态足迹分析的广度与深度均有所增加,反映出该区域存量资本被过度利用,且耕地、林地和建设用地对资源流量的占用水平上升,而水域和草地的占用水平下降。此外,生态足迹的变化受多种因素驱动,包括自然环境、经济增长和社会发展等,其中建成区面积、城镇化率、人均GDP和各产业产值与之正相关。研究还发现,区域土地的生态可持续性已从基本平衡转变为轻度不可持续状态,并且有进一步恶化的趋势。适度人口比例实际人口的比例下降,人口增长空间减小,使得生态可持续性难以稳定保障。本研究为黄河流域保护和高质量发展战略提供了科学依据。

The stability and sustainable development of the ecosystem of the Weihe River Basin is the key for realizing the protection and high-quality development strategy of the Yellow River Basin.This study took the Gansu section of the Weihe River Basin as the study area,evaluated the ecological security status and its changing patterns from 2005 to 2020 based on the ecological footprint theory and the improved threedimensional ecological footprint model,and on this basis comprehensively evaluated the ecological sustainability of the Weihe River Basin and its supply and demand balance.The results showed that the ecological footprint,ecological carrying capacity and ecological deficit of the Gansu section of the Weihe River Basin from 2005 to 2020 were all on the rise.The growth rate of ecological footprint was faster than that of ecological carrying capacity,and the ecological deficit of the region was on the rise,indicating that the supply of regional resources was less than the demand direction.The breadth and depth of the ecological footprint showed an increasing trend.The stock of capital in the study area was over-appropriated,ecological security was threatened,and it was in a more ecologically insecure state,with higher ecological pressure;the ecological sustainability of the regional land had shifted from a basic balance to a mildly unsustainable stage,and there was still a trend of further deterioration.The ecologically moderate population was also decreased in proportion to the actual population,with a lower space for population growth,making it difficult to secure ecological sustainability in a stable manner.In addition,the change of ecological footprint was influenced by natural environment,economy,social growth and other factors,among which the built-up area,urbanization rate,GDP per capita,and output value of various industries were positively correlated with the increase of ecological footprint.