地方政府债务对城镇化的影响机制及中介效应

The Influence Mechanism and Mediating Effect of Local Government Debt on Urbanization

地方政府债务扩张是我国政府主导、投资驱动型传统城镇化模式的重要动能和必然表现。然而,当前地方债问题日益显现,地方城投平台高杠杆主导城镇化模式亟待转型。基于2002-2020年全国31个省份数据,运用个体固定效应与工具变量模型,实证分析地方政府债务对新型城镇化的影响机制及中介效应和调节效应后发现:地方债扩张对城镇化产生先促进再抑制的非线性影响,债务扩张初期有利于完善城市基础设施和促进就业,但后期资本效率下降和对私人投资的挤出凸显;地方债通过抬高房价-收入比、刺激固定资产投资进而促进城镇化;老龄化程度越高的地方政府越倾向通过债务扩张拉动城镇化;但是服务业就业会减缓地方债对城镇化的促进效果。因此,高城镇化水平区域要更加严控地方政府债务规模,约束地方城投公司行为,地方财政支出更多偏向养老支持、住房保障等普惠性公共服务,发挥第三产业就业对城镇化作用。

Local government debt expansion is an important driving force and inevitable manifestation of China's government-led and investment-driven traditional urbanization model.However,the current local debt problem is increasingly apparent,and the high-leverage-led urbanization model of local urban investment platforms needs to be transformed.Based on the data of 31 provinces in China from 2002 to 2020,this paper uses the individual fixed effect and instrumental variable model to empirically analyze the influence mechanism,mediating effect and moderating effect of local government debt on new urbanization.It is found that local debt expansion has a non-linear effect on urbanization,which first promotes and then inhibits.In the early stage of debt expansion,it is conducive to improving urban infrastructure and promoting employment,but in the later stage,capital efficiency decreases and crowding out private investment is prominent.Local debt promotes urbanization by raising the housing price-income ratio and stimulating fixed asset investment;the higher the degree of aging,the more likely local governments are to promote urbanization through debt expansion;however,employment in the service industry will slow down the promotion effect of local debt on urbanization.Therefore,regions with high urbanization level should more strictly control the scale of local government debt,restrain the behavior of local urban investment companies,and local fiscal expenditure should be more biased towards inclusive public services such as pension support and housing security,so as to give full play to the role of tertiary industry employment in urbanization.