中国北方农牧交错区生态系统服务价值时空变化特征及驱动力分析

Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Variation Characteristics and Driving Forces of Ecosystem Service Value in the Agro-pastoral Ectone of Northern China

为探究区域生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem services value,ESV)时空变化特征及其驱动因子,本研究基于1990—2020年七期土地利用数据,采用当量法估算北方农牧交错区的生态系统服务价值,在GEE云平台与ArcGIS软件的支撑下,分析其时空变化特征,并利用地理探测器模型揭示影响其变化的关键驱动因子。北方农牧交错区30a间草地面积增幅最大,建设用地呈逐年增长的趋势,林地与荒地面积减少,耕地与水域面积基本保持不变,土地利用空间分布格局基本稳定,土地利用方式的转化主要发生在耕地、林地与草地之间;北方农牧交错区年均ESV总量呈降低趋势,以林草地和水域提供调节服务为主,其次为支持服务、供给服务和文化服务,研究区ESV的空间分布与土地利用空间分布格局高度关联;北方农牧交错区ESV空间分异性受多种因素共同驱动,单因子表现为NDVI解释力最高,双因子表现为夜间灯光与NDVI交互作用最强。

In order to explore the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and driving factors of regional ecosystem service value(ESV),this study,based on seven periods of land use data from 1990 to 2020,used the equivalent method to estimate the ecosystem service value of the Northern Agro-Pastoral Ecotone,analyzed its spatiotemporal change characteristics through the GEE cloud platform with the support of ArcGIS software,and used the geodetector model to reveal the key driving factors of affecting its changes.The results showed that the area of grassland increased the most in the past 30 years in the Northern Agro-Pastoral Ecotone,the impervious showed a increasing trend year by year,the area of forest and barren decreased,the area of cropland and water basically remained unchanged,and the spatial distribution pattern of land use was basically stable.The transformation of land use mode mainly occurred between cropland,forest and grassland;the average annual total ESV in the Northern Agro-Pastoral Ecotone showed a decreasing trend.Forestry,grassland and water areas provided mainly regulating services,following by support services,supply services and cultural services.The spatial distribution of ESV was highly related to the spatial distribution pattern of land use and the spatial differentiation of ESV in the Northern Agro-Pastoral Ecotone was driven by multiple factors.The single factor showed that NDVI had the highest explanatory power,and the double factor showed that the interaction between nightlight and NDVI had the strongest explanatory power.