危机与秩序:21世纪全球转型问题

Crisis and Order: Global Transformation Issues in the 21^(st) Century

在世界百年未有之大变局背景下,危机成为国际变局的征兆,在危机中蕴含着推动旧秩序改革与新秩序构建的动力。三十年前,全球化主要表现为西方国家的发展模式和价值观的传播。进入新世纪后,全球化逐渐转向以新兴经济体的崛起为特征,强调自主性和多样性。新兴市场国家,如中国、印度、巴西等,在全球经济中的地位日益重要,对全球政治和经济格局产生了深远影响。全球转型导致了国际关系的重塑,包括大国间的关系、区域组织的作用以及多边机构的影响力,地缘政治的重心可能从传统的西方中心转向多极化,新兴国家在地缘政治中扮演越来越重要的角色。与三十年前全球各国推进以学习西方为主要方向的全球转型不同,进入21世纪以后,逐渐转向以新兴经济体崛起为背景的、新的、强调自主性形式的全球转型。随着全球转型的深入,国际法和全球治理机制面临着更新和改革的需求,以适应新的全球秩序。当代世界已经发展到了西方中心秩序正在解体的阶段。一个由世界各种力量合成的秩序正在形成,俄罗斯也是其中的一支重要力量。西方某些势力试图将俄罗斯从世界秩序中驱逐出去,把中国在世界秩序中加以矮化甚至压倒,显然是徒劳的。金砖国家、全球南方和中俄联手,共同争取建设一个公正合理、公平正义的世界秩序。中俄关系在紧张的国际背景下展现出的强劲动力和独立价值,对国际秩序的重塑具有重要意义。

In the context of unprecedented global changes, crises have become indicators of international upheavals, containing the impetus for reforming the old order and constructing a new one. Thirty years ago,globalization was primarily characterized by the dissemination of Western development models and values. Entering the 21st century, globalization has gradually shifted towards the rise of emerging economies, emphasizing autonomy and diversity. Emerging market countries, such as China, India, and Brazil, have become increasingly important in the global economy, exerting a profound impact on the global political and economic landscape. This global transformation has led to a reshaping of international relations, affecting the relationships between major countries, the role of regional organizations, and the influence of multilateral institutions. The geopolitical focus may shift from the traditional Western-centric model to a multipolar one, with emerging countries playing an increasingly significant role. Unlike the global transformation thirty years ago, which was mainly directed towards learning from the West, the 21st century marks a new phase of global transformation driven by the rise of emerging economies and a new emphasis on autonomy. As the global transformation deepens, international law and global governance mechanisms face the need for renewal and reform to adapt to the new global order. The contemporary world has reached a stage where the Western-centric order is disintegrating. A new order, synthesized by various global forces, is taking shape,with Russia being an important component. Attempts by some Western forces to expel Russia from the world order and diminish or even suppress China's role in it are clearly futile. BRICS countries, the Global South, and the cooperation between China and Russia are jointly striving to build a just, equitable, and fair world order. In this tense international context, the strong momentum and independent value exhibited by China-Russia relations are of great significance for the reshaping of the international order.