俄罗斯安全思维的特征、本质与演进——基于战略文化的视角

Characteristics,Nature and Evolution of Russian Security Thinking:A Perspective Based on Strategic Culture

战略文化对行为体的战略思维模式和战略行为模式具有指导和塑造作用,为解释行为体的战略选择提供了不可或缺的补足路径。通过构建战略文化的作用机制,发现俄罗斯的战略文化兼具防御性与进攻性,从而形成了其两种特性并存的安全思维。对外部威胁的敏感知觉与安全脆弱性构成了俄罗斯的防御型安全思维,且随着它对西方认知的消极变迁而不断加剧。进攻型安全思维体现在俄罗斯利用军事手段实现政治目的的军事思维上,以主动激进的战略行为为主要表现形式,并随着现代冲突的发展而显现出重视“混合战争”手段和非对称战争方法的新发展趋势。文章认为,防御型战略文化在俄罗斯安全思维中占据主导地位,使其倾向于出于防御动机而采取进攻行为,但当俄罗斯面临的战略环境越严峻、感知到的外部威胁越紧迫时,以主动激进的军事思维为核心的进攻型战略文化便转而居上,使俄罗斯安全思维呈现出一定的进攻性倾向。

Strategic culture guides and shapes the strategic thinking and behavior patterns of actors,providing an indispensable supplementary path for explaining their strategic choices.By constructing the mechanism of strategic culture,it is found that Russian strategic culture embodies both defensive and offensive characteristics,resulting in a dual-natured security thinking.The defensive security thinking of Russia is shaped by its sensitivity to external threats and its perception of security vulnerabilities,which have been exacerbated by its increasingly negative perception of the West.The offensive security thinking is reflected in Russia's military thinking,which uses military means to achieve political goals.This is mainly manifested through proactive and aggressive strategic behaviors and has shown new development trends in modern conflicts,emphasizing“hybrid warfare”techniques and asymmetric warfare methods.The article argues that defensive strategic culture predominates in Russian security thinking,leading it to adopt offensive actions out of defensive motivations.However,as Russia's strategic environment becomes more severe and perceived external threats become more urgent,the offensive strategic culture,centered on proactive and aggressive military thinking,takes precedence.This shift makes Russian security thinking exhibit certain offensive tendencies.