从愿景到现实:中亚国家多元平衡外交政策的演变

From Vision to Reality:The Evolution of Multilateral Balanced Foreign Policies in Central Asian Countries

俄乌冲突爆发后,中亚国家的多元平衡外交政策大体经历了从“愿景”到“现实”的转变。中亚国家独立以来,各国均将“多元平衡”视为外交政策的指导性原则。但受到俄罗斯在中亚地区所维系的“准单极”权力结构等因素限制,中亚国家在践行多元平衡外交政策时均将俄罗斯视为外交政策的优先方向。“平衡”的主要对象为俄美两国,“多元”的外交对象则包括中国、土耳其、欧盟、印度、日本等行为体。俄乌冲突前,中亚国家奉行的多元平衡外交政策长期以来更多是作为一种“愿景”。而俄乌冲突爆发后,尤其在中亚地区“准单极”结构松动、域外大国增加对中亚地区的关注和介入后,中亚国家纷纷趁势强化了多元平衡外交政策。中亚国家开始与俄罗斯保持一定距离,扩展与域外大国在各领域的合作关系,积极主动与中东国家开展双多边合作。由此,中亚国家的多元平衡外交政策转变为“现实”。这一转变有多重影响,大国介入为中亚国家带来更多利益,但后者“平衡”的风险也有所增加;就中亚地区秩序而言,趋于“准多极化”的中亚地区稳定性难料。不过,预计中亚国家外交政策中的多元平衡这一特征将不断加强。

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict of 2022,the Central Asian states'multivector foreign policies has largely undergone a transition from“vision”to“reality”.Since the independence of the Central Asian states,all of them have regarded“multivectorism”as the guiding principle of their foreign policy.However,due to factors such as the'quasi-unipolar'power structure maintained by Russia in Central Asia,the Central Asian states in the practice of multivector foreign policies have regarded Russia as the priority direction of foreign policy,and the main object of“balance”is Russia and the United States,while the targets of“diversified”diplomacy are often passively chosen.It can be said that the foreign policy of Central Asian states'multivector foreign policies have long been a“vision”at best.Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict of 2022,and especially since the loosening of the quasi-unipolar structure of the Central Asian region,as well as the increase in the attention and involvement of extra-territorial powers,the Central Asian states have taken the opportunity to strengthen their multivector foreign policies.Specifically,the Central Asian states have begun to maintain a certain distance from Russia,expand their cooperative relations in various fields with extra-territorial powers,and proactively engage in bilateral and multilateral cooperation with Middle Eastern countries.As a result,the Central Asian states state'multivector foreign policies has become a“reality”.This shift has multiple implications:for the Central Asian states,the involvement of major powers has brought them more benefits,while the risk of“balance”has also increased,and for the regional order in Central Asia,the stability of the Central Asian region,which tends to be'quasi-multipolar',is unpredictable.However,it is expected that the pluralistic balance that characterises the foreign policy of the Central Asian states will continue to grow.