俄罗斯农业支持政策的演进历程与未来趋势分析

On Evolution of Russian Agricultural Support Policies and Future Trends

俄罗斯是“一带一路”沿线重要国家,也是中国农产品贸易的重要伙伴,分析俄罗斯农业支持政策的演进历程和未来趋势,对中国农业改革和粮食安全具有重要意义。分析表明,俄罗斯农业支持政策经历了自由化改革期、形成期、完善期和调整期四个阶段。农业支持水平呈现上升趋势,生产者支持占比最大,并且以市场价格支持和挂钩补贴为主,农业一般服务支持占比呈上升趋势。随着国际格局的大变动,短期内俄罗斯农业财政预算呈现下降趋势,长期来看,俄罗斯农业支持政策的发展趋势将是:增强农业补贴有效性,推进农村地区综合发展,实行种子进口替代政策,重视土地利用和小型农企发展。综合分析过程与结论,本文建议,中国农业政策应有序推进渐进式改革,扩大对农业的补贴支持,重视金融支持政策的运用,支持比较优势相对较弱的农产品种类。

Russia is an important country along the Belt and Road Initiative and a significant partner in China's agricultural trade. Analyzing the evolution and future trends of Russia's agricultural support policies is of great significance for China's agricultural reform and food security. The analysis shows that Russia's agricultural support policies have undergone four stages: the liberalization reform period, the formation period, the improvement period, and the adjustment period.The level of agricultural support has shown an upward trend, with the largest proportion being producer support, mainly through market price support and coupled subsidies. The proportion of general agricultural services support is also increasing. With major international changes, Russia's agricultural fiscal budget shows a downward trend in the short term. In the long term, the development trends of Russia's agricultural support policies will be: enhancing the effectiveness of agricultural subsidies, promoting comprehensive rural development,implementing seed import substitution policies, and focusing on land use and the development of small farms. Based on the comprehensive analysis, this article suggests that China's agricultural policy should advance gradual reforms in an orderly manner, expand subsidy support for agriculture, emphasize the use of financial support policies, and support agricultural products with relatively weak comparative advantages.