考虑故障率和修复次数的装备可修部件需求预计方法

Estimation method of equipment repairable parts demand considering failure rate and repair times

针对装备可修部件的消耗预测粗放、困难、不准确,考虑可修部件故障率回退概率和修复次数约束限制,运用可靠性分析及随机过程理论,构建可修部件需求数量预计方法,通过算例分析说明,该预计方法比不考虑部件故障率回退的装备可修部件需求预计方法更为科学合理,证明了该预计方法的科学性和有效性,能够为保障部门确定合理的可修部件筹措、配置和供应数量提供参考。

Aiming at the problem of rough,difficult and imprecise consumption prediction of repairable parts,considering the failure rate return probability of repairable parts and the limitation of repair times,using reliability analysis and stochastic process theory,this paper explores the method of predicting the quantity of repairable parts demand,and finally,combining with the example analysis,proves that the method is scientific and effective.It also provides a theoretical method for the guarantee department to determine the reasonable amount of repairable parts to be raised,configured and supplied.