新型基础设施建设与中国经济高质量发展

New Infrastructure Construction and High-quality Economic Development

统筹推进基础设施建设是党的二十大报告的明确要求,“新”“老”基建协同发展是中国经济高质量发展的关键。在明确“老基建”的生产外部性和“新基建”的网络外部性基础上,本文突破静态研究框架,从动态视角研究了经济增长路径上基础设施投资结构变迁效应,并发现,“老基建”的短期经济刺激效应强于“新基建”,“新基建”的长期经济刺激效应和创新激励效应明显强于“老基建”。同时,“任期约束”是政府设定基础设施投资结构转型时点的关键变量,对短期经济增长目标关注程度越高、关注期限越短的政府往往选择延迟基础设施投资结构转型时点,但这会带来经济增长的“下台阶”现象。实证结果进一步验证了,“老基建”在经济增长初期充分发挥了生产外部性作用,但现在对经济增长和创新发展的激励效应明显减弱,而“新基建”对经济增长和创新发展的激励效应显著增强。因此,政府应因地制宜结合“新”“老”基建边际产出相对变化,尽早推进“新”“老”基建转型,统筹推动经济质的有效提升和量的合理增长。

Coordinating the infrastructure construction is a clear requirement of the Report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,where the coordinated development of“new”and“old”infrastructure is the key to high-quality economic development in China.Based on identification of the production externalities of“old infrastructure”and the network externalities of the“new infrastructure”,breaking through the static research frame,this paper studies the structural change effect of infrastructure investment on the path of economic growth.It finds that the short-term stimulus effect of“old infrastructure”is stronger than that of the“new infrastructure”,while the long-term economic stimulus effect and innovation incentive effect of the“new infrastructure”are obviously stronger than that of the“old infrastructure”.Meanwhile,“term constraint”is the key variable for the government to set the time point of the structural transformation of infrastructure investment.Government concerning more on the short-term economic growth target with less policy attention period often delays the time point of the structural transformation of infrastructure investment,which leads to the“step down”phenomenon of economic growth however.The empirical results further verify that“old infrastructure”has given full play to production externalities in the early stage of economic growth,whereas the incentive effect of“old infrastructure”on economic growth and innovative development is significantly weakened.While,the incentive effect of“new infrastructure”on economic growth and innovative development is significantly enhanced.Therefore,the government should combine the relative changes of marginal output of“new”and“old”infrastructure,adapting to local conditions,to promote the transformation of“new”and“old”infrastructure as soon as possible,and to coordinate the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth of quantity.