中国省域数字经济与实体经济深度融合——动态演进趋势与障碍因子识别

Deep Integration of Digital Economy and Real Economy in China’s Provinces:Dynamic Evolution Trend and Obstacle Factor Identification

文章基于2011—2020年中国省域面板数据,通过熵权-修正耦合模型度量了中国省域数字经济与实体经济深度融合水平,刻画了数实融合的动态演进趋势,利用修正障碍因子模型识别了中国省域数实融合的障碍因子。研究结果表明:1)经过10年的发展,中国各省份数字经济、实体经济及其深度融合水平都取得了长足的进步,2020年中国数实融合平均水平达到了0.3218,总体上处于中度融合水平。2)“十二五”时期数实融合水平处于平稳发展状态,“十三五”时期的后两年提升幅度较大,且省际数实融合水平存在极化趋势。3)中国数实融合的主要障碍来源于数字经济子系统,最大的障碍因子为数字技术环境,该障碍主要源于技术研发环境。4)数字技术环境的缺位和数字技术人才的缺失是各个地区数实融合的主要障碍,东北地区比较特殊,其工业方面的障碍大于数字基础设施的障碍。5)数字技术环境、数字技术人才和数字产业化三个障碍因子并未随两个五年规划的更迭而变化,表明三者是中国目前及将来很长一段时间内数实融合的主要障碍。

Based on the panel data of China’s provinces from 2011 to 2020,this paper measures the integration level of digital economy and real economy in China’s provinces with the entropy-modified coupling model,describes the dynamic evolution trend of digital-real integration,and uses the modified obstacle factor model to identify the obstacle factors of digital-real integration in China’s provinces.The research results are as follows.1)With 10 years of development,China’s provinces have made great progress in digital economy,real economy and their deep integration.In 2020,the average level of real integration in China has reached 0.3218,which is generally at the medium level of integration.2)During the“12th Five-Year Plan”period,the level of integration is in a stable development state,the last two years of the“13th Five-Year Plan”period has seen a large increase,and the level of inter-provincial data integration has a polarization trend.3)The main obstacles to China’s digital-real integration come from the digital economy subsystem,and the biggest one is the digital technology environment,which mainly comes from the technology research and development environment.4)The lack of both digital technology environment and digital technology talents are the main obstacles to digital-real integration in various regions.The Northeast region is special,and its industrial obstacles are greater than the obstacles of digital infrastructure log-real integration.5)The three obstacle factors of digital technology environment,digital technology talents and digital industrialization have not changed with the two five-year plans,indicating that the three will be the main obstacles at present and in the future for a long time.