2023年广西高影响强对流天气特征及预报预警回顾

Review of the characteristics and forecasting warnings of highimpact severe convective weather in Guangxi in 2023

利用多源气象探测资料,对2023年广西高影响强对流天气特征及预报预警难点进行综合分析。结果表明:(1)全年出现5次区域性及以上强对流天气过程,总体偏少。冰雹集中出现在3月到5月。雷暴大风主要出现在3—9月,极大风速为34.9 m·s^(-1)。(2)产生冰雹的超级单体主要触发在锋面及锋前暖区,强的对流不稳定、能量和垂直风切变条件下锋前暖区需关注迅速发展降雹的超级单体,提前发布预警信号。(3)西南涡背景下的飑线大风天气由地面静止锋和干线触发;短临预报应考虑线状对流自组织作用将落区向南调整。(4)对类高架、暖区冰雹天气数值模式预报能力差,需加强机理研究提升客观化预报预警技术。

A comprehensive analysis of the characteristics of high-impact severe convective weather and the forecasting and warning challenges in Guangxi in 2023 was conducted using multiple data sources.The results show that:(1)There was a total of 5 regional and above severe convective weather events throughout the year,which were generally fewer compared with the climate state.Hailstorms were concentrated from March to May.Thunderstorm gust mainly occurred from March to September,with a maximum wind speed of 34.9 m·s^(-1).(2)Hail-producing supercells were mainly triggered at fronts and frontal warm zone under conditions of strong convective instability,energy,and vertical wind shear in frontal warm zones.Therefore,forecasters should be concerned about the rapid development of hail super monomers and issue early warning signals in advance.(3)Squall-line wind events under a southwest vortex background were triggered by ground stationary fronts and dry lines;short-term forecasters should consider the self-organising effect of linear convective to adjust the falling area to the south.(4)Numerical model forecasting capabilities were poor for elevated and warm-sector hail weather,and it is necessary to strengthen the mechanistic research to improve the objective forecasting and warning technology.