基于AHP+ABC的小型水库病险特点及加固技术分析

Risk Characteristic and Strengthening Technology of Small Reservoir Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process and Activity Based Classification

小型水库约占我国水库总量的95%,为国民经济发展提供了有力支撑,但对小型水库病险规律研究总体较少。通过构建小型水库大坝安全评价层次结构模型,基于大坝安全风险和病险频度综合权重分析,通过AHP(层次分析法)+ABC(主次因素分析法)计算权重、绘制帕累托图,量化分析得出小型水库主要病险指标和因素。研究表明,小型水库病险特点具有均衡性、全面性、规律性;小型水库病险主要指标依次是结构安全问题、渗流安全问题、防洪能力不足,小型水库病险主要因素是大坝渗流安全、泄洪能力复核、大坝结构安全、泄水建筑物结构安全、大坝坝顶高程和防浪墙高程复核等,并在此基础上系统总结了主要病害问题加固技术,为新时期小型水库除险加固提供参考和指导。

Small reservoirs account for about 95%of the total reservoirs in our country and play very important roles in the development of national economy.However,there are few studies on the risk characters of small reservoirs.The hierarchical structure model of dam safety evaluation for small reservoirs was constructed in this paper.Based on the comprehensive weight analysis of dam safety risk and risk frequency,the weight was calculated and the Pareto chart was drawn through AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process)and ABC(Activity Based Classification),and the main risk indicators and factors of small reservoirs were quantitatively analyzed.The study showed that the risk characteristics of small reservoirs were balanced,comprehensive and regular.The main risk indicators of small reservoirs were structural safety,seepage safety and insufficient flood control capacity.The main risk factors of small reservoir were seepage safety of dam,review of flood discharge capacity,structure safety of dam,structure safety of water discharge building,review of dam top and wave wall elevations,etc.On this basis,the strengthening technology of main disease problems was systematically summarized.It provides reference and guidance for strengthening the small reservoirs in the new period.