东北地区森林旅游与养老产业耦合协调发展研究

The Coupling and Coordinated Development of Forest Tourism Industry and Elderly Care Industry in Northeast China

运用综合指标评价法、耦合协调度模型分析2013—2022年东北地区森林旅游与养老产业之间的内在耦合关系演化及可能产生的原因。研究结果表明:东北地区森林旅游产业整体发展水平指数均值为0.4911,明显高于养老产业综合发展指数;东北地区森林旅游与养老产业耦合协调度整体偏低,两产业耦合协调度从濒临失调阶段转变为轻度失调阶段;省域范围内两产业耦合协调度存在明显的差异。因此,为提高森林旅游与养老产业发展水平,推进两产业向更高级别的产业系统协调发展,要转变发展理念,重视两产业的顶层设计与全局规划;以产业需求为引领,深化供给侧结构性改革;立足优势产业资源,推进产业优化协同并进。

⑴Background——The forest tourism industry and the elderly care industry influence and support each other in terms of resource factors,industrial layout and policy linkage,which lays the foundation for the coupling and coordinated development of the two industries.In recent years,forest tourism has been vigorously developed in Northeast China,while population aging has been deepening.Exploring the coupling and coordination law between the forest tourism industry and the elderly care industry in Northeast China can provide theoretical reference and decision support for the coordinated development of the two industries.⑵Methods——The research data in this paper were mainly from“China Statistical Yearbook”,“China Civil Affairs Statistical Yearbook”,“China Forestry and Grassland Statistical Yearbook”,as well as the statistical communiques on the national economic and social development of Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning provinces during 2013—2022.This paper firstly constructed an evaluation indicator system for the development level of the forest tourism industry and elderly care industry.Then,the entropy method was used to measure the weight of each indicator,and the linear weighting method was used to calculate the comprehensive evaluation values of the two industrial subsystems.Finally,the coupling coordination degree model was used to calculate the degree of mutual influence of the two industries in Northeast China and determine the coupling and coordinated development status of the two subsystems.⑶Results——First,the average of the overall development index of the forest tourism industry in Northeast China is 0.4911,which is significantly higher than the comprehensive development index of the elderly care industry 0.3758.Second,on the whole,the coupling coordination degree of the forest tourism industry and elderly care industry in Northeast China is low,and the coupling coordination degree of the two industries has changed from the near imbalance stage to the mild imbalance stage.Third,there are obvious differences in the coupling coordination degree of the two industries in different provinces.According to the grade standard of coupling coordination degree,it can be seen that the coupling coordination degree of the two industries in Heilongjiang Province is at the critical coordination level,the coupling coordination degree of the two industries in Liaoning province is at the near imbalance level,and that of the two industries in Jilin Province is at the moderate imbalance level.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——First,change the development concepts,attach importance to the coupling development between industries and the top-level design and overall planning of the two industries.Encourage the use of forest ecological resources to develop tourism,strengthen the construction of scenic spot infrastructures,improve the elderly forest tourism industry system,clarify industry norms,and formulate a standard system and supervision system.Second,deepen the supply-side structural reform,guided by industrial demand.Build a full-chain forest tourism and health care service system for the elderly,strengthen the construction of high-quality forest tourism scenic spots and summer resorts,and create high-quality forest tourism routes suitable for the elderly.Third,based on advantageous industrial resources,promote industrial optimization and coordinated development.The high-quality resources of the forest tourism industry will accurately cover the growing elderly group,extend the industrial value chain,and build an industrial supply and demand service platform.