深圳市地震灾害风险评估与讨论

Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment in Shenzhen and Related Discussion

以第一次全国自然灾害综合风险普查的总体要求为框架,结合深圳市特点,以深圳市(深汕特别合作区除外)单体调查房屋为评估数据基础,选择适合深圳市房屋特点的地震易损性矩阵,在开展单体房屋震害评估的基础上,进行人员死亡和经济损失评估。深圳市地震灾害风险评估考虑4个超越概率水平,即50年63%(常遇地震)、50年10%(设防地震)、50年2%(罕遇地震)、100年1%(极罕遇地震)的地震作用影响。文中讨论了100年1%(极罕遇地震)地震作用下深圳市建筑物破坏所导致的人员死亡风险和建筑物直接经济损失风险,并给出风险治理的参考建议。

This study utilizes the overall requirements of the first national comprehensive natural disaster risk survey as its framework and incorporates the specific characteristics of Shenzhen City.Using individual surveyed houses in Shenzhen City(excluding the Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone)as the basis for assessment data,it presents a seismic vulnerability matrix tailored to Shenzhen's housing characteristics.The study assesses personnel mortality and economic losses based on seismic damage evaluations of individual houses.The seismic disaster risk assessment in Shenzhen considers four exceedance probability levels:63%in 50 years(common earthquakes),10%in 50 years(design earthquakes),2%in 50 years(rare earthquakes),and 1%in 100 years(extremely rare earthquakes).It discusses the risks of personnel mortality and direct economic losses to buildings from the 1%in 100 years(extremely rare earthquake)event and provides recommendations for risk management.