辽宁省旱涝急转特征与趋势研究

Study on the characteristics and trend of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Liaoning Province

【目的】旱涝急转事件有较高的突发性和致灾性,明确辽宁省旱涝急转的特征与趋势,为辽宁省旱涝灾害预警与水资源应急管理提供依据。【方法】旱涝急转指标是进行旱涝急转研究的基础,利用辽宁省19个气象站点1970—2020年的降水数据,分别采用长、短周期旱涝急转指数(LDFAI、SDFAI)进行时空特征分析,并指明旱涝急转指数的异同,实现对辽宁省旱涝急转事件的量化识别。【结果】结果表明:(1)1970—2020年辽宁省LDFAI与SDFAI总体呈上升趋势,未来辽宁省干旱转洪涝风险正逐步提升;(2)辽宁省旱涝急转事件的发生概率空间差异性显著并且与辽宁省的降水分配不均密切相关;(3)SDFAI重心变化幅度明显大于LDFAI,LDFAI与SDFAI迁移中心主要集中在辽宁省中部盘锦、鞍山、营口等地。【结论】总体来看,辽宁省旱涝急转现象频发,且具有周期性,强度逐年增大。研究结果可为辽宁省科学应对旱涝灾害和提高水资源应急管理能力提供参考。

[Objective]The abrupt transition of drought and flood has a high degree of suddenness and disaster.The characteristics and trend of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Liaoning Province are clarified,and the basis is provided for the early warning of drought and flood disaster and the emergency management of water resources in Liaoning Province.[Methods]The index of drought-flood abrupt alternation is the basis of the research of drought-flood abrupt alternation.Based on the precipitation data of 19 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1970 to 2020,the spatial and temporal characteristics were analyzed by using the long-period and short-period drought-flood transition indexes(LDFAI and SDFAI),and the similarities and differences of drought-flood rapid transition indexes were pointed out to realize the quantitative identification of drought-flood rapid transition events in Liaoning Province.[Results]The result show that:(1)The overall trend of LDFAI and SDFAI in Liaoning Province from 1970 to 2020 is increasing,and the risk of drought to flood in Liaoning Province is gradually increasing in the future.(2)The probability of drought and flooding in Liaoning Province is spatially differentiated and is closely related to the unequal distribution of precipitation in Liaoning Province.(3)The magnitude of change in the center of gravity of the SDFAI is significantly larger than that of the LDFAI,and the migration centers of LDFAI and SDFAI are mainly concentrated in Panjin,Anshan,and Yingkou in the central part of Liaoning Province.[Conclusion]On the whole,the phenomenon of abrupt change of drought and flood occurred frequently in Liaoning province,and the intensity increased year by year.The research result can provide a theoretical reference for Liaoning Province to scientifically respond to drought and flood disasters and improve the ability of water resources emergency management.