基于认知层级视角的供应链成员定价决策分析

Pricing decisions of supply chain members:From the perspective of cognitive hierarchy

供应链成员的决策受到决策者行为特性的影响.本研究以一个供应商和一个零售商组成的供应链系统为研究对象,实施管理实验探究供应链成员定价决策行为.分别以认知层级模型、有限理性模型,以及认知层级与有限理性结合的综合模型刻画决策者行为,并对比分析三种模型的似然估计结果,得出综合模型能够更好地解读供应链成员的定价决策行为,揭示了决策者定价行为偏离理论决策最优的主要原因是决策者对其他决策者战略能力推理水平的不一致性信念,以及无法对其他决策者决策做出最优反应的决策偏差.同时,决策者的认知层级受到其决策顺序的影响.相对于先行动者可以获得的信息,由于后行动者可以接收到先行者的决策信息,所以后行动者的认知层级较高.

The decisions of supply chain members are influenced by human behaviors.Focusing on a supply chain with one supplier and one retailer,this paper conducts management experiments to explore their pricing decision behaviors in experiment settings.The behaviors of decision⁃makers are described by a cognitive hier⁃archy model,a bounded rationality model,and a comprehensive model combining both the cognitive hierarchy and bounded rationality models.The likelihood estimation results of the three models are compared and ana⁃lyzed,and we conclude that the comprehensive model can better fit the pricing decision⁃making behaviors of supply chain members.It reveals that the main reasons for the decision⁃makers’pricing behaviors deviating from the optimal theoretical decisions are the heterogeneous beliefs between decision⁃makers about their oppo⁃nent’s strategic reasoning capabilities,and the decision⁃making deviation that prevents optimal responses to the other’s decisions.At the same time,the average cognitive hierarchy of decision⁃makers is affected by their decision⁃making sequence.Compared with the first mover,the later mover’s cognitive level is higher since the later mover can receive the decision information of the first mover.