高速铁路对山东省经济增长的空间溢出效应研究

Spatial Spillover Effect of High Speed Railway on Economic Growth in Shandong Province

以山东省地级市为研究对象,构建各城市的省内和省外高速铁路可达性模型,测算高速铁路建设引致的时空收敛效应,运用空间杜宾模型对2008—2019年山东省16个地级市的面板数据进行回归,探讨高速铁路建设对山东省经济增长及各产业发展的空间溢出效应。结果表明,山东省高速铁路建设对经济增长的影响主要是通过可达性提升引致的,并且具有明显的空间溢出效应,其中省内高速铁路可达性对经济增长具有正向影响,而省外高速铁路可达性提升可能会导致虹吸效应;高速铁路可达性提升对山东省第二产业的空间溢出效应最高,但对第三产业发展的作用仍不突出。研究结果可以为充分发挥高速铁路建设在推动经济持续和均衡增长中的支撑作用提供参考。

This paper took prefecture-level cities in Shandong province as the research object and constructed the intra-provincial and inter-provincial accessibility models of each city to measure the spatial and temporal convergence effect caused by the construction of high speed railway(HSR).Then,using the spatial Durbin model,the spatial spillover effect of HSR on the economic growth and development of industries in Shandong Province was explored by means of the regressive analysis of panel data of 16 prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2019.The results show that the impact of HSR on economic growth in Shandong Province is mainly caused by the improvement of accessibility,and has a significant spatial spillover effect.The intra-provincial accessibility has a positive impact on economic growth,while the improvement of inter-provincial accessibility may lead to the siphon effect.The spatial spillover effect brought by HSR accessibility improvement on the secondary industry in Shandong province is the highest,but the effect on the development of the tertiary industry is still not prominent.The related results may provide references for giving full play to the supporting role of HSR in promoting sustained and balanced economic growth.