基于聚类分析的公路货运价格与运输距离之间关系研究

Relationship between Highway Freight Rate and Transportation Distance Based on Cluster Analysis

随着我国铁路货运价格逐步放松管制,分析挖掘公路货运价格波动与运输距离之间的规律,不仅有利于铁路货运更好地适应市场化的竞争环境,而且有助于铁路应对公路货运竞争。结合我国公路运输市场环境发展态势,分析公路运价的影响因素,同时阐述计量经济学聚类分析的常规方法,选取以北京、成都、大连、上海4个城市分别作为始发点,全国37个城市作为终到点的公路货运价格周度数据,运用系统聚类分析原理,构建数学模型,研究分析在运输方向差异性以及疫情等社会公共事件的影响下,公路货运价格与运输距离之间的相互作用机理,为铁路运输企业制定和实施合理价格策略、提高市场应对能力提供决策参考。

In view of the gradual deregulation of railway freight fare in China,this paper explored the law between the highway freight fare fluctuation and the transportation distance,which not only helped railway freight better adapt to the market competition environment but also helped railways cope with the highway freight competition.According to the development trend of the market environment of highway transportation in China,this paper analyzed the influencing factors of highway freight fare.At the same time,the conventional methods of econometric cluster analysis were described.The weekly data of highway freight fare with Beijing,Chengdu,Dalian,and Shanghai as the starting points and 37 cities as the ending points were selected.This paper also used the principle of systematic cluster analysis to build a mathematical model and studied the interaction mechanism between highway freight fare and transportation distance under the influence of differences in transportation direction and social public events such as pandemics,providing decision-making reference for railway transportation enterprises to formulate and implement reasonable fare strategies and improve market coping ability.