中老泰跨国旅游经济带网络结构演化与协同发展布局

Network Structural Evolution and Synergistic Development Layout of China-Laos-Thailand Transnational Tourism Economic Belt

跨境铁路是跨国旅游经济带一体化建设的“催化剂”,基于2015—2022年中老泰铁路沿线省域面板数据,利用中线趋势外推工具预测2023—2029年发展数据,运用旅游交通可达性模型、旅游经济联系模型和社会网络分析等方法探究沿线区域旅游经济的网络结构特征与时空演化趋势,构建跨国旅游经济带协同发展布局。结果表明:中老泰铁路逐段开通显著优化沿线区域旅游交通可达性,可达性空间格局为“两头低,中间高→西高东低→南低北高”;沿线区域旅游经济联系整体提升并向均衡态势发展;沿线区域旅游经济网络具有“中孤南密的流星型→西疏东密的印章型→组团联网的纺锥型”的演变路径;构建“增长极辐射、点-轴带动、聚拢组团”的中老泰跨国旅游经济带协同发展布局。

The cross-border railway serves as a“catalyst”for the integrated development of the transnational tourism economic belt.Based on 2015—2022 sub-regional panel data along the China-Laos-Thailand railway,this paper utilized trend extrapolation tools to predict 2023—2029 development data.In addition,it employed methods such as tourism transportation accessibility models,tourism economic linkage models,and social network analysis to explore the network structure characteristics and spatiotemporal evolution trends of the regional tourism economy,constructing coordinated development of transnational tourism economic belt.The results indicate that the phased opening of the China-Laos-Thailand railway significantly enhances the accessibility of regional tourism transportation,forming a spatial pattern of“low at both ends,high in the middle→high in the west,low in the east→low in the south,high in the north.”The overall linkage of the regional tourism economy is improved and moves towards a balanced state.The evolution path of the regional tourism economic network follows a pattern of“meteor-shaped with alone center and dense south→seal-shaped with sparse west and dense east→spindle-shaped with clustered networking.”A synergistic development layout for the China-Laos-Thailand transnational tourism economic belt is constructed,emphasizing“growth pole radiation,point-axis driving,and clustering”.