财政补助、农民养老金替代率与经济增长率

Financial Subsidies,Replacement Rate of Rural Pension and Economic Growth Rate

在一般均衡框架下采用世代交叠模型,研究了城乡居民基本养老保险财政支出中社会保障部分对养老金替代率和经济增长率的影响程度以及影响机制,构建了一个三期叠代模型,并在模型中引入人力资本,经过参数模拟对其进行量化分析。研究发现:财政支出中社保比例与养老金替代率呈现正相关关系;财政支出中社保比例与经济增长率呈现“U”型关系。得出如下政策建议:应辩证调整财政补贴筹资结构;村集体要充分发挥主观能动性和释放经济潜能;考虑适当增加公共教育支出以提高人力资本水平。

Within the framework of general equilibrium,this paper uses the overlapping generations model to study the influence and mechanism of social security on pension replacement rate and economic growth in the financial expenditure of basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents.A three-stage iterative model is constructed,and human capital is introduced into the model,which is quantitatively analyzed by parameter simulation.It is found that there is a positive correlation between social security proportion and pension replacement rate in fiscal expenditure,and a"U"relationship between social security proportion and economic growth rate.The policy recommendations are as follows:we should dialectically adjust the financing structure of financial subsidies;the village collective should give full play to its subjective initiative and release its economic potential;and properly increasing public education expenditure should be considered to improve the level of human capital.