煤炭资源型地区碳排放时空演变及影响因素——以山西省为例

Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions in coal-based areas:taking the Shanxi as an example

煤炭资源型地区是碳减排的重点关键区域,其节能降碳对于全国实现碳达峰、碳中和目标具有重要意义。本文借助融合校正后的DMSP/OLS与NPP-VIIRS夜间灯光数据,构建能源消费碳排放与夜间灯光数据模型,对典型煤炭资源型省份山西省碳排放量进行测算,并采用探索性时空分析、地理探测器等方法对山西省县域碳排放的时空格局演变及影响因素进行分析。结果表明:①2000—2020年,山西省碳排放量呈现不断增长的趋势,2010年以后增速大幅度放缓,呈现收敛态势;②山西省碳排放呈现显著的正向全局自相关,形成了以太原与晋中为中心的高高集聚,低低集聚则主要分布于忻州西部和大同东部;③经济发展水平、人口规模、固定资产投资、城镇化率对碳排放量的增长具有促进作用,而产业结构优化对碳排放量的增长具有抑制作用。

Coal resource-based areas are the key regions of carbon emission reduction,whose energy conservation and carbon reduction are of great significance to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China.In this study,nighttime light data of Defense Meteorological Satellite Program/Operational Line Scanner(DMSP/OLS)and National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite(NPP-VIIRS)after fusion correction are used.The data model of carbon emissions from energy consumption and nighttime light is constructed to measure the carbon emissions of counties in Shanxi Province,a typical coal resource-based region.Meanwhile,the exploratory spatial-temporal analysis and geographical detector are used to analyze the spatial and temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of carbon emissions of all counties in Shanxi.The results show that:①From 2000 to 2020,carbon emissions in Shanxi show a growing trend,but the growth rate slows down significantly from 2010.②Carbon emissions show a significant positive global autocorrelation,forming a high-high agglomeration centered on the provincial capital Taiyuan and Jinzhong,while low-low agglomeration is mainly distributed in the western regions of Xinzhou and the eastern counties of Datong.③The level of economic development,population size,fixed asset investment and urbanization rate have a positive effect on the increase of carbon emissions,while the optimization of industrial structure has an inhibitory effect on the increase of carbon emissions.