基于“目标—保障—效果”的未来产业发展政策对比分析——以上海与深圳为例

The Comparative Analysis of Future Industrial Development Poli⁃cies Based on"Goal-Guarantee-Effect"-A Case Study of Shanghai and Shenzhen

未来产业作为影响未来经济社会变迁的关键新兴产业,对构建现代化产业体系具有至关重要的作用。依据产业政策制定的过程,基于政策目标、政策保障及政策效果等3个维度,选取政策时效、政策支持、政策功能等7个具体指标构建对比分析模型,对上海和深圳2022年出台的未来产业专项发展政策进行对比分析。研究发现:从政策目标角度看,上海和深圳均致力于加快构建未来产业创新生态系统;从政策保障角度看,上海和深圳都将人才引育、资金补贴和区域合作等三方面作为未来产业高质量发展的关键支撑;从政策效果角度看,上海和深圳制定的未来产业发展政策均具有引导性作用,为未来产业的发展指明了方向。最后,从培养未来产业人才、拓宽融资渠道、建立新制度和探索新模式、构建未来产业创新生态系统等4个维度提出相应的对策建议,以期为其他城市前瞻布局未来产业提供参考与借鉴。

Future industries,as key drivers of future economic and social transformation,play an essential role in building a modern industrial system.Based on the process of industrial policy formulation,this study selects seven specific indicators,including policy timeliness,policy support and policy objects,from three dimensions of policy goals,policy guarantees and policy effects,and builds a three-dimensional comparative analysis model of"goal-guarantee-effect"through literature analysis,policy text analysis and other methods.The paper objectively and scientifically evaluates the similarities and differences of the future industrial policies of Shanghai and Shenzhen,and deeply explores the logic and reasons behind the policy formula-tion.From the perspective of policy goals,both Shanghai and Shenzhen are committed to acceler-ating the construction of future industrial innovation ecosystem,although they differ in the length of the industrial cultivation cycle and the focus of key cultivation areas.From the perspective of policy guarantees,although there are differences in the methods and objects of talent cultivation,the modes of financial support,and the ideas of regional open cooperation between Shanghai and Shenzhen,both cities have optimized the allocation of key elements required for the high-quality development of future industries in combination with urban resource endowment.From the per-spective of policy effects,the future industrial development policies formulated by Shanghai and Shenzhen serve a significant guiding role,pointing out the scientific direction for regional indus-trial development.Accordingly,this study proposes corresponding countermeasures and sugges-tions from four dimensions:first,to strengthen the cultivation of future industrial talents,continu-ously optimize the education and training system,and enhance the professional skills and innova-tive capabilities of talents;second,to broaden financing channels and promote diversified invest-ment,providing rich financial support for the sustainable development of the future industries;third,to plan ahead for the layout of future industries,formulate scientific industrial develop-ment plans,and enhance the competitiveness of future industries;fourth,to build a future indus-trial innovation ecosystem,optimize the policy environment,promote industry-university-research collaborative innovation,and form a good ecology that fits the sustainable development of the industry.Through comparative analysis of the future industrial special policies of Shang-hai and Shenzhen,this study can,on the one hand,more accurately identify the industrial needs of the two cities in the aspects of talent cultivation,capital subsidies and regional cooperation,and in-depth analysis of the action logic behind the policy measures,which is conducive to sci-entific assessment of the rationality of the future industrial policies of the two cities.On the other hand,it can provide systematic development ideas and operational guidelines for other cities to better understand and learn from the practice cases of the two cities,so as to formulate more fea-sible and effective industrial development policies.In summary,this study not only provides a new perspective of case analysis from the theoretical level,but also provides new directional sug-gestions from the practical level,which can effectively help the high-quality development of the future industry.