多元技术进步路径与工业高质量发展——基于国际环境的调节作用

Diversified Technological Progress Paths and High-quality Indus⁃trial Development-The Regulating Role of the International Environment

探讨了内外源技术进步路径对工业高质量发展的影响,并考察了国际环境的调节效应。采用省级面板数据进行实证分析,研究结果表明:(1)自主创新能够显著促进工业高质量发展,而直接技术购买、外商直接投资和进口等3种技术引进路径均对工业高质量发展无直接促进作用,但直接技术购买与自主创新间存在显著的正向协同效应。(2)国际环境通过强化技术引进与自主创新的协同作用对工业高质量发展产生积极影响,其中对外商直接投资路径的调节效应最强。(3)进一步讨论发现,与发达国家间的国际关系体现出更强的调节效应,这说明国际环境是通过影响引进技术的水平而发挥作用的;本土创新质量提升对工业高质量发展的推动作用更强。上述结论在多种稳健性检验下仍保持稳定。研究结论为我国加快推进新型工业化、建设现代化产业体系提供了靶向性启示。

Industry is a crucial component of China's economy.However,recent years have seen a deceleration in industrial growth.The unsustainable nature of extensive growth models ne-cessitates a shift towards innovation-driven transformation to achieve high-quality industrial de-velopment.The crux of this transition lies in optimizing both independent innovation and tech-nology introduction.Consequently,this paper first explores how to better utilize the respective advantages of independent innovation and technology introduction to foster high-quality indus-trial growth.Additionally,China is facing significant challenges related to technological block-ades and sanctions,with core technologies being"bottlenecked"by developed countries,which has heightened the uncertainty in cross-border knowledge transfer and reduced the quality of technology introduction.So it is worth studying the role of the international environment in the relationship between innovation and high-quality industrial development.Therefore,this paper further explores the impact of endogenous and exogenous technological progress paths on high-quality industrial development and examines the moderating effects of the international environ-ment.This paper uses a provincial panel dataset from 2002 to 2019 for empirical analysis.The re-sults indicate the following findings:firstly,independent innovation significantly promotes high-quality industrial development,while the three pathways of technology introduction—direct tech-nology purchase,foreign direct investment(FDI),and imports—do not show a direct positive im-pact on high-quality industrial development.However,direct technology purchase exhibits a positive synergistic effect with independent innovation.Secondly,the international environment positively influences high-quality industrial development by enhancing the synergy between technology introduction and independent innovation,with the strongest moderating effect on the FDI pathway.Thirdly,further analysis reveals that the moderating effects of international rela-tions with developed countries are stronger than those with developing countries,suggesting that the international environment plays a role by influencing the level of imported technologies.Ad-ditionally,this paper also finds that the improvements of local innovation quality significantly contribute to high-quality industrial development.The above conclusions remain stable under a variety of robustness tests,providing targeted recommendations for accelerating new industrial-ization and establishing a modern industrial system in China.This paper potentially contributes in three key areas:firstly,it examines the economic ef-fects of innovation pathway choices from the perspective of synergies between endogenous and exogenous innovation,extending existing research on how innovation influences industrial trans-formation.Secondly,it clarifies the heterogeneous impacts of three technology introduction path-ways—direct technology purchase,FDI,and imports—on high-quality industrial development.Unlike previous literature that mainly evaluates technology introduction through direct technol-ogy purchases or FDI,this paper offers richer empirical evidence and decision-making refer-ences for choosing technology introduction pathways.Thirdly,this paper pioneers the examina-tion of the moderating effects of the international environment on exogenous technological prog-ress,providing empirical evidence on how external macroeconomic environments influence do-mestic industrial development.