基于PHFWMGSM算子的水利工程施工事故应急能力评价研究

Study on emergency capacity evaluation of water conservancy project construction accidents based on PHFWMGSM operator

为了提高水利工程突发事故应急能力评价的有效性,基于概率犹豫模糊加权麦克劳林几何对称平均(probabilistic hesitant fuzzy weighted Maclaurin geometric symmetric mean,PHFWMGSM)算子,构建水利工程施工事故应急能力评价模型。运用修订后的水利工程施工事故应急能力评价指标体系,结合区间层次分析法(interval analytic hierarchy process,IAHP)确定各指标权重,以减小点值判断带来的误差;再利用概率犹豫模糊集及PHFWMGSM算子,解决实际环境中专家的犹豫心理及评价信息的不完整性;最后,以水利水电工程施工典型事故案例进行分析,验证评价模型的适用性。验证结果表明:该模型能真实表达专家的犹豫心理,较完整地保留评价信息,保证了评价的有效性和准确性,贴切反映实际的应急能力情况,对实际工程应急评估有一定指导意义。

In order to improve the effectiveness of emergency capacity evaluation of water conservancy projects,an evaluation model of emergency response capacity of hydraulic engineering construction accidents based on the PHFWMGSM(probabilistic hesitant fuzzy weighted Maclaurin geometric symmetric mean)operator is established.By using the revised evaluation index system of construction accident emergency capacity of water conservancy project,combined with IAHP(interval analytic hierarchy process),the weight of each index is determined to reduce the error caused by point value judgment.Then,the probabilistic hesitancy fuzzy set and PHFWMGSM operator are used to solve the hesitancy psychology of experts and the incompleteness of evaluation information in real environment.Finally,the applicability of the evaluation model is verified by analyzing typical accident cases of hydraulic and hydropower project constructions.It is proved that the model can truly express the hesitation psychology of experts,retain the evaluation information more completely,ensure the validity and accuracy of the evaluation,and reflect the actual emergency response capacity appropriately,which has certain guiding significance for the emergency response capacity assessment of practical projects.