RCEP下中日农产品贸易自由化的经济效应

On the Economic Effects of China-Japan Agricultural Trade Liberalization under RCEP

利用单一市场局部均衡分析模型(WITS-SMART),模拟了RCEP下中日农产品贸易自由化的经济效应。结果表明:中日两国所有农产品的贸易创造效应均大于贸易转移效应,且随着降税幅度的加大,贸易效应显著提升,其中种植业降税给两国创造的贸易效应最突出;虽然中日两国关税收入会下降,但整体福利均将获得提升,且两国均是种植业降税的福利效应最大,随着减税力度的加大,福利效应进一步扩大;中日两国优势农产品均在关税减让中获得更多发展机遇,中国的麦芽等种植业产品和腌制鱼等水产品降税的贸易效应与福利效应均比较突出,但谷物、烟草等种植业产品将面临竞争压力。研究为更好把握RCEP下中日农产品贸易自由化带来的机遇及积极应对产生的挑战提供了参考。

This paper simulates the economic effects of trade liberalization in agricultural products between China and Japan under RCEP,using the single market partial equilibrium analytical model(WITS-SMART).The results indicate that the trade creation effects of all agricultural products between China and Japan outweigh the trade transfer effects,and an increase in tariff reduction significantly enhances trade effects;although tariff revenues for China and Japan will be declined,the overall welfare of both countries will be improved,particularly with the largest welfare effects stemming from reduced tariffs in the cultivation sector.As the degree of tariff reduction intensifies,welfare effects expand;the advantageous agricultural products of both countries gain more opportunities through tariff reductions,with notable trade and welfare effects observed for Chinese products such as malt and pickled fish,while cereal and tobacco products face increased competitive pressure.This research can serve as policy references for better addressing the opportunities and challenges of agricultural trade liberalization between China and Japan under RCEP.