金融发展与农户杠杆率变动

Financial Development and Farmers’Leverage Ratio Fluctuations

农村数字金融正在改变农民的金融行为,对金融市场的稳定产生影响。利用数字普惠金融指数(2011—2015)和家庭金融调查数据(2015—2019),在省级层面探讨数字金融发展对农户杠杆率的长期影响。研究发现:数字金融通过增加家庭收入和促进合理消费,可以显著降低农户长期杠杆率。数字金融提升工商业收入、农业生产经营收入和非农就业收入的效果递减,三类收入降低农户杠杆率的作用递增。生存型和发展型消费能够增强家庭内生发展能力,同时改善家庭经济状况并减少债务负担。数字金融资源供给大于需要时,贫困农户的长期杠杆率不降反升。农村地区就业创业公共服务滞后,数字金融使用效益偏低,将推升贫困农户杠杆率。

Rural digital finance is changing farmers′financial behaviors,which may therefore influence the stability of financial market.Using data from the Digital Financial Inclusion Index(2011—2015)and the Household Finance Survey(2015—2019),the long-term impact of digital financial development on the leverage ratio of farm households is explored at the provincial level.The study finds that digital finance can significantly reduce the long-term leverage of farm households by increasing household income and promoting reasonable consumption.The effect of digital finance in boosting industrial and commercial income,agricultural production and operational income and non-farm employment income diminishes,and the role of the three types of income in reducing the leverage ratio of farm households increases.Survival and developmental consumption can enhance the endogenous development capacity of households,while improving their economic situation and reducing their debt burden.When the supply of digital financial resources is greater than the need;the long-term leverage of poor farm households increases rather than decreases.Lagging public services for employment and entrepreneurship in rural areas and the ineffective use of digital finance will push up the leverage ratio of poor farmers.