绿色低碳农业与社会经济系统耦合协调性测度——基于天津市实证分析

Green and Low-carbon Agriculture and Socio-economic Systems Coupled and Coordinated Development:Based on Empirical Research in Tianjin

农业是我国绿色低碳发展的重要领域,绿色低碳农业的发展与社会经济的发展具有紧密的相融互促关系。本文利用2003—2021年数据,选用耦合协调模型测度了天津市绿色低碳农业与社会经济之间的耦合协调度,探讨了绿色低碳农业与社会经济耦合协调度的主要驱动因素,以期为天津市农业绿色低碳转型发展提出针对性的对策和建议。结果表明:(1)天津市绿色低碳农业和社会发展水平整体上均呈波动式上升,但绿色低碳农业发展水平高于社会发展水平,而经济发展水平呈波动下滑趋势;(2)天津市绿色低碳农业与社会经济的耦合度和耦合协调度均呈增强趋势,但耦合协调度整体偏低,尚处于过渡阶段;(3)在绿色低碳农业与社会经济耦合协调过程中,农业碳排放强度和化肥施用强度负向作用显著,有效灌溉率、人均GDP、城镇居民恩格尔系数等因素具有正向作用。本文建议在促进绿色低碳农业与社会经济耦合协调发展进程中,必须在保障农业增效、农民增收基础上,借助于区域社会经济发展才能实现高度耦合发展。

Agriculture stands as a pivotal domain in our country's pursuit of green and low-carbon development,with a closely intertwined relationship between the advancement of green and low-carbon agriculture and socio-economic progress.This study,drawing on data from 2003 to 2021,employed a coupling coordination model to assess the coupling coordination between green and low-carbon agriculture and socio-economic development in Tianjin.It delved into the primary driving factors behind the coupling coordination of green and low-carbon agriculture with socio-economic development,aiming to propose targeted policy recommendations for the transformative development of green and low-carbon agriculture in Tianjin.The results showed:(1)both the levels of green and low-carbon agriculture and social development in Tianjin had exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend,with the former surpassing the latter,while the economic development level showed a fluctuating downward trajectory.(2)The degree of coupling and coordination between green and low-carbon agriculture and socio-economic development in Tianjin was on the rise,yet the overall coordination level remained relatively low,still in a transitional phase.(3)In the process of coupling coordination between green and low-carbon agriculture and socio-economic development,agricultural carbon emission intensity and fertilizer application intensity exhibited a significant negative impact,while factors such as the effective irrigation area of arable land,per capita GDP,and the Engel coefficient of urban residents played a positive role.The study suggestes that to promote the coordinated development process of green and low-carbon agriculture with socio-economic development,it is imperative to enhance agricultural efficiency and increase farmers'income,leveraging regional socio-economic development for a highly coordinated advancement.