基于STIRPAT-GWR模型的重庆市土地利用碳排放动态演进及影响因素

Dynamic evolution and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in Chongqing based on STIRPAT-GWR model

探究重庆市土地利用碳排放时空分异及影响因素,可为进一步优化土地利用结构、落实差异化的降碳减污政策提供参考。基于2000年、2010年、2020年3期土地覆盖数据揭示重庆市碳排放的区域差异及时空动态特征,综合运用STIRPAT模型和地理加权回归(GWR)模型,探究社会经济因素对碳排放的空间异质性影响。结果表明:重庆市净碳排放量在2000—2020年总计增长3723.14×104 t,其时序变化可划分为急剧增加阶段和缓慢增加阶段;土地利用碳汇与碳源仍存在收支不平衡问题。净碳排放总体呈现“中心高、两翼低”的分布格局,净碳排放增量在主城都市区的增长幅度最为剧烈,在渝东南各区县均呈现微度增长态势,渝东北各区县的增长量存在明显的空间差异性。土地利用碳排放各影响因素的空间分布格局差异较大,碳排放强度和人均GDP是关键主导因素,其他依次为城镇人口规模、地方财政一般预算支出、产业结构,碳排放强度在渝东北地区的影响强度较大,城镇人口规模在主城都市区的正向促进作用较大。

Exploring the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of land use carbon emissions in Chongqing can provide a scientific reference for further optimizing land use structure and implementing differentiated carbon and pollution reduction policies.Based on three periods of land cover data from 2000 to 2020,the regional differences and spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of carbon emissions in Chongqing were revealed.The impact of socio-economic factors on spatial heterogeneity of carbon emissions was explored by integrating the STIRPAT model and the geographically weighted regression(GWP)model.The results showed that the net carbon emissions of Chongqing increased by a total of 37.2314 million tons from 2000 to 2020.Its temporal changes could be divided into a sharp increase stage and a slow increase stage,and there was still an imbalance between land use carbon sinks and carbon sources.The overall distribution pattern of net carbon emissions in Chongqing was characterized by a pattern of"high in the center and low on both wings".The growth of net carbon emissions in the main urban areas was the most severe,while it showed a slight increase in all districts and counties of the southeast in Chongqing.There was a significant spatial difference in the growth of net carbon emissions in the northeast.The factors influencing land use carbon emissions presented a strong spatial heterogeneity.The carbon emission intensity and per capita GDP were the key leading factors,followed by urban population size,general budget expenditure of local finance,and industrial structure.The intensity of carbon emissions had a more significant impact in the northeast of Chongqing,and the size of the urban population had a greater positive effect in the main metropolitan areas.