基于演化博弈模型的林业碳汇激活控排企业环境、社会和治理功能的影响机制分析

Influence mechanism analysis of forestry carbon sink activating environmental,social and governance functions of emission control enterprises based on an evolutionary game model

在CCER重启背景下,如何促进林业碳汇市场的发展是一个值得深入探讨的时代课题。随着ESG评级体系在我国的兴起,控排企业环境维度的行为决策受到显著约束。文章创新性地将林业碳汇指标纳入现有ESG体系,设计适用于我国废渣、废气、废水三类高耗能行业的ESG评级体系,为完善我国控排企业的ESG评级体系、促进高耗能企业的绿色转型和可持续发展提供了理论依据和实践指导。通过回归分析,文章探讨了企业ESG评分、政府补贴金额、林业碳汇成本对林业碳汇购买量的影响。为进一步检验影响机制,文章通过构建地方政府、控排企业和投资机构三方演化博弈模型,分析三者行为的演化路径,验证了机制的有效性。回归分析结果表明,企业ESG评分和政府补贴金额对企业购买林业碳汇量具有显著正向影响,而林业碳汇成本对其具有显著负向影响,且在不同行业中通过了稳健性检验。仿真分析结果显示,演化博弈的稳定点为(1,0,1)和(1,1,0),验证了引入林业碳汇后的ESG评级体系可以促进企业购买更多林业碳汇,即林业碳汇激活ESG评级体系运行机制的有效性。基于研究结论,文章提出政策启示:政府应加快本土化ESG评级体系建设,完善企业信息披露和监管,增加补贴并降低林业碳汇成本,优化碳配额设计。

In the context of CCER restart,how to promote the development of the forestry carbon sink market is a topic of the times that deserves in-depth exploring.With the rise of ESG rating system in China,the behavioral decisions of emission control enterprises in the environmental dimension are significantly constrained.This article innovatively incorporated forestry carbon sink indicators into the existing ESG system and designed an ESG rating system suitable for three types of waste residue,waste gas and waste water of energy-consuming enterprises in China,which provided theoretical basis and practical guidance for improving the ESG rating system of emission control enterprises and promoting the green transformation and sustainable development of high energy-consuming industries in China.Through regression analysis,this article explored the effects of enterprise ESG scores,government subsidy amounts and forestry carbon sink costs on the purchasing amounts of forestry carbon sink.In order to further test the influence mechanism,the article analyzed the evolutionary paths of the three parties'behaviors by constructing a tripartite evolutionary game model for local governments,emission control enterprises and investment institutions,verified the effectiveness of machanism.The regression analysis results indicated that the ESG scores of enterprises and government subsidy amounts had a significant positive impact on the amounts of forestry carbon sink purchased by enterprises,while forestry carbon sink costs had a significant negative impact,which passed the robustness test in different industries.The simulation analysis results showed that the stable points of the evolutionary game were(1,0,1)and(1,1,0),which verified that the introduction of forestry carbon sink into the ESG rating system could promote enterprises to purchase more forestry carbon sink,that is,the effectiveness that forestry carbon sink could activate the operating mechanism of the ESG rating system.Based on the research findings,implications were as follows:The government should accelerate the construction of localized ESG rating system,improve enterprise information disclosure and supervision,increase subsidies to decrease the costs of forestry carbon sink,and optimize carbon quota design.